Identifying the distributional range and climatically suitable habitat of a species are crucial for developing an effective conservation strategy. This study aims to simulate the current distribution of climatically suitable habitat for a threatened medicinal tree, Oroxylum indicum (L.) Kurz in India and predict its possible range shifts in future climate scenario. Combined with 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim, we used Maxent to predict the potential suitable areas for species in current climatic condition and future climate under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios by integrating three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 2050 and 2070. Furthermore, we performed change analysis to identify the precise difference between the current and future distribution of suitable areas of the species for delineating habitat range expansion (gain), habitat contraction (loss) and stable habitats. The model predicted ∼25.47 % of the geographical area in India is presently climatically suitable for the species. The study revealed that annual precipitation, precipitation of wettest and warmest quarter, precipitation of wettest month, maximum temperature of warmest month and mean temperature of warmest quarter significantly influence the distribution of the studied species. The net habitat loss under three RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) was estimated to range from 10.51 % to 17.31 % for the year 2050, which could further increase 16.63%–20.40% by the year 2070. The finding indicates that rise in temperature could significantly reduce the potential habitat of O. indicum and hence suitable measures need to be taken to conserve this important medicinal plant.

确定物种的分布范围和气候适宜的栖息地对于制定有效的保护策略至关重要。这项研究旨在模拟濒危药用树Oroxylum indicum的气候适宜生境的当前分布（L.）印度的库尔兹（Kurz），并预测其在未来气候情景中的可能范围变化。结合WorldClim的19个生物气候变量，我们使用Maxent通过整合2050年和2070年的三种通用循环模式（GCM）来预测三种代表性浓度途径（RCP）情景下当前气候条件和未来气候下物种的潜在合适区域。 ，我们进行了变化分析，以找出该物种合适区域的当前和未来分布之间的精确差异，以描述栖息地范围的扩大（收益），栖息地的收缩（损失）和稳定的栖息地。该模型预测印度目前约有25.47％的地理区域在气候上适合该物种。研究表明，年降水量，最湿和最暖季的降水量，最湿月的降水，最暖月的最高温度和最暖季的平均温度显着影响所研究物种的分布。到2050年，三种RCP情景（RCP 4.5、6.0和8.5）下的净栖息地损失估计在10.51％至17.31％的范围内，到2070年可能进一步增加16.63％–20.40％。温度升高会大大减少O. indicum，因此需要采取适当的措施来保护这种重要的药用植物。