Predictive toxicity models, including interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models, are reliable alternatives to animal toxicity testing. The ICE models describe mathematical relationships facilitating toxicity prediction from one surrogate test species to a species of unknown sensitivity. The ICE models were developed from curated aquatic toxicity data for 19 nonionic alcohol ethoxylate (AE) surfactants manufactured through the same process. Comparison of AE–ICE predictions with observed values from external validation datasets indicates a reasonable predictive accuracy. Model predictions were also closer to observed values than predictions from previously published ICE models for other substance groups. Comparison of acute fifth percentile hazard concentrations (HC5s) from species sensitivity distributions enhanced with AE–ICE predictions with chronic HC5s published elsewhere produced an acute-to-chronic ratio of 5, which was used to estimate chronic HC5s. With both acute and chronic HC5s for 14 AE substances, regressions were made relative to their respective liposome–water partitioning coefficients (log K _lipw), resulting in HC5–log K _lipw relationships useful in estimating HC5s for AE substances with known composition but with limited or unavailable toxicity data. The findings from this case study further demonstrate that ICE models are viable alternatives to toxicity testing and could be used as weight of evidence in hazard assessment evaluations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:2073–2082. © 2021 SETAC

中文翻译：

---

化学相关物质的预测毒性模型：以非离子醇聚氧乙烯醚表面活性剂为例

预测毒性模型，包括种间相关性估计 (ICE) 模型，是动物毒性测试的可靠替代方案。ICE 模型描述了促进从一种替代测试物种到未知敏感性物种的毒性预测的数学关系。ICE 模型是根据通过相同工艺制造的 19 种非离子醇乙氧基化物 (AE) 表面活性剂的精选水生毒性数据开发的。AE-ICE 预测与来自外部验证数据集的观察值的比较表明了合理的预测准确性。模型预测也比以前发布的其他物质组的 ICE 模型的预测更接近观察值。与其他地方发表的慢性 HC5 的 AE-ICE 预测增强的物种敏感性分布的急性第五百分位危险浓度 (HC5) 的比较产生了 5 的急性与慢性比率，用于估计慢性 HC5。对于 14 种 AE 物质的急性和慢性 HC5，相对于它们各自的脂质体-水分配系数（log K _lipw )，导致 HC5-log  K _lipw关系可用于估计具有已知成分但毒性数据有限或不可用的 AE 物质的 HC5。本案例研究的结果进一步表明，ICE 模型是毒性测试的可行替代方案，可用作危害评估评估中的证据权重。环境毒物化学2021；40:2073–2082。© 2021 SETAC