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A Comparison of Moderate and Extreme ERA‐5 Daily Precipitation With Two Observational Data Sets
Earth and Space Science ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-05 , DOI: 10.1029/2020ea001633
Pauline Rivoire 1 , Olivia Martius 1 , Philippe Naveau 2
Affiliation  

A comparison of moderate to extreme daily precipitation from the ERA‐5 reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts against two observational gridded data sets, EOBS and CMORPH, is presented. We assess the co‐occurrence of precipitation days and compare the full precipitation distributions. The co‐occurrence is quantified by the hit rate. An extended generalized Pareto distribution (EGPD) is fitted to the positive precipitation distribution at every grid point and confidence intervals of quantiles compared. The Kullback–Leibler divergence is used to quantify the distance between the entire EGPDs obtained from ERA‐5 and the observations. For days exceeding the local 90th percentile, the mean hit rate is 65% between ERA‐5 and EOBS (over Europe) and 60% between ERA‐5 and CMORPH (globally). Generally, we find a decrease of the co‐occurrence with increasing precipitation intensity. The agreement between ERA‐5 and EOBS is weaker over the southern Mediterranean region and Iceland compared to the rest of Europe. Differences between ERA‐5 and CMORPH are smallest over the oceans. Differences are largest over NW America, Central Asia, and land areas between 15°S and 15°N. The confidence intervals on quantiles are overlapping between ERA‐5 and the observational data sets for more than 80% of the grid points on average. The intensity comparisons indicate an excellent agreement between ERA‐5 and EOBS over Germany, Ireland, Sweden, and Finland, and a disagreement over areas where EOBS uses sparse input stations. ERA‐5 and CMORPH precipitation intensity agree well over the midlatitudes and disagree over the tropics.

中文翻译:

使用两个观测数据集比较中度和极端ERA-5每日降水量

提出了欧洲中距离天气预报中心ERA-5重新分析的中度至极端日降水量与两个观测网格数据集EOBS和CMORPH的比较。我们评估了降水天数的同时发生,并比较了全部降水量分布。同时发生是通过点击率来量化的。将扩展的广义帕累托分布(EGPD)拟合到每个网格点的正降水分布,并比较分位数的置信区间。Kullback-Leibler散度用于量化从ERA-5获得的整个EGPD与观测值之间的距离。对于超过当地第90个百分位数的日子,ERA-5和EOBS之间的平均命中率是65%(欧洲),而ERA-5和CMORPH之间的平均命中率是60%(全球)。一般来说,我们发现随着降水强度的增加,共生现象减少。与欧洲其他地区相比,在地中海南部地区和冰岛,ERA-5与EOBS之间的协议较弱。ERA-5和CMORPH之间的差异在整个海洋中是最小的。西北美洲,中亚以及15°S至15°N之间的陆地地区之间的差异最大。平均而言,超过80%的网格点在ERA-5和观测数据集之间的分位数置信区间重叠。强度比较表明ERA-5和EOBS在德国,爱尔兰,瑞典和芬兰之间达成了极好的协议,并且在EOBS使用稀疏输入站的地区存在分歧。ERA-5和CMORPH降水强度在中纬度地区一致,而在热带地区则不一致。
更新日期:2021-04-29
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