As a vital resource endowment area and ecological barrier area in China, low-carbon development in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is of great significance. This paper compiled the emission inventory in the Upper Yangtze River Economic Zone in the IPCC regional emission accounting method framework and used the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model to evaluate economic development and carbon emissions. Finally, this paper used the time series method to predict carbon emissions to 2030. We find that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions increased rapidly from 2004 to 2012. The average annual growth rate reached 9.16%. After 2012, carbon emissions in the region no longer grow steadily but fluctuate or even decline. The secondary industry contributed 79.77%, the tertiary industry contributed 17.78%, and the primary industry only 2.45% from 2000 to 2015. From the industrial sector and energy consumption, thermoelectricity production and supply division and nonmetallic mineral products industry are the sectors with the most CO₂ emissions, accounting for 35.54% and 13.34%, respectively. Raw coal and coke are the main factors causing emissions. Nearly 61.32% of the carbon dioxide produced by raw coal comes from the electricity production sector. However, from 2011 to 2015, the CO₂ emissions of raw coal decreased year by year, down by 23.32%. The impact of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions supports the EKC hypothesis. The CO₂ emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Economic Zone will decline after 2020, but Chongqing has shown an upward trend. With the above results, provinces and cities can optimize the regional industrial structure based on sectoral carbon emissions. The study area needs to develop clean energy to optimize the coal-led energy consumption structure. Provinces and cities in the district can learn from each other's advanced emission reduction experience. © 2021 The Authors. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

中文翻译：

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长江上游经济带能源消费与碳排放特征分析

作为我国重要的资源禀赋区和生态屏障区，长江上游低碳发展意义重大。本文在IPCC区域排放核算方法框架下编制了长江上游经济区排放清单，并利用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）模型对经济发展和碳排放进行评价。最后，本文采用时间序列方法预测到 2030 年的碳排放量。我们发现二氧化碳（CO ₂) 排放量从 2004 年到 2012 年快速增长，年均增长率达到 9.16%。2012年以后，该地区的碳排放量不再稳定增长，而是出现波动甚至下降。2000-2015年第二产业贡献79.77%，第三产业贡献17.78%，第一产业仅2.45%。 CO ₂排放量分别占35.54%和13.34%。原煤和焦炭是造成排放的主要因素。原煤产生的二氧化碳中近61.32%来自电力生产部门。然而，从 2011 年到 2015 年，CO ₂原煤排放量逐年减少，下降23.32%。经济增长对二氧化碳排放的影响支持 EKC 假设。2020年后长江上游经济区CO ₂排放量将有所下降，但重庆已呈现上升趋势。有了以上结果，省市可以基于部门碳排放优化区域产业结构。研究区需要发展清洁能源，优化以煤炭为主导的能源消费结构。区内各省市可相互借鉴先进减排经验。© 2021 作者。温室气体：科学与技术由化学工业协会和约翰威利父子公司出版。