Poland has been estimated to possess large volumes of technically recoverable shale gas resources, which has raised national hopes for increasing energy security and building export capacity. In this paper, we aim to examine political claims and hopes that Poland could achieve natural gas self-sufficiency and even become a gas exporter by harnessing domestic shale potential. We do so by relying on well-by-well production experience from the Barnett Shale in the USA to explore what scope of shale gas extraction, in terms of the number of wells, would likely be required to achieve such national expectations. With average well productivity equal to the Barnett Shale, at least 420 wells per year would be necessary to meet the domestic demand of 20 Bcm in 2030. Adding Poland’s potential export capacity of five Bcm of gas per year would necessitate at least 540 wells per year. Such a significant amount of drilling and hydraulic fracturing would require reconsideration and verification of national energy security plans and expectations surrounding shale gas production. A more informed public debate on technical aspects of extraction would be required, as extensive fracking operations could potentially have implications in terms of environmental risks and local land-use conflicts.

据估计，波兰拥有大量可技术回收的页岩气资源，这为提高能源安全性和建设出口能力提高了国家希望。在本文中，我们旨在研究政治主张，并希望波兰能够通过利用国内页岩气潜力实现天然气的自给自足甚至成为天然气出口国。为此，我们依靠美国Barnett页岩的逐井生产经验，来探索达到这一国家期望可能需要的页岩气开采范围（以井数为单位）。如果平均油井产量等于Barnett页岩，那么到2030年，每年至少需要420口油井才能满足20 Bcm的国内需求。加上波兰潜在的每年5 Bcm的天然气出口能力，每年至少需要540口井。如此大量的钻井和水力压裂将需要重新考虑和核实国家能源安全计划以及有关页岩气生产的预期。由于采掘技术的广泛开展可能对环境风险和当地土地使用冲突产生潜在影响，因此需要就采掘技术方面进行更充分的公众辩论。