Nature Climate Change ( IF 30.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-05 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01011-y Yang Chen , David M. Romps , Jacob T. Seeley , Sander Veraverbeke , William J. Riley , Zelalem A. Mekonnen , James T. Randerson
Lightning is an indicator and a driver of climate change. Here, using satellite observations of lightning flash rate and ERA5 reanalysis, we find that the spatial pattern of summer lightning over northern circumpolar regions exhibits a strong positive relationship with the product of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation. Applying this relationship to Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections for a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) shows an increase in CAPE (86 ± 22%) and precipitation (17 ± 2%) in areas underlain by permafrost, causing summer lightning to increase by 112 ± 38% by the end of the century (2081–2100). Future flash rates at the northern treeline are comparable to current levels 480 km to the south in boreal forests. We hypothesize that lightning increases may induce a fire–vegetation feedback whereby more burning in Arctic tundra expedites the northward migration of boreal trees, with the potential to accelerate the positive feedback associated with permafrost soil carbon release.
中文翻译:
未来北极闪电和永久冻土碳火灾风险的增加
闪电是气候变化的指标和驱动因素。在这里,通过对闪电频率的卫星观测和 ERA5 再分析,我们发现北极地区夏季闪电的空间格局与对流可用势能 (CAPE) 和降水的乘积呈现出很强的正相关关系。将此关系应用于高排放情景 (RCP8.5) 的气候模型比对项目第 5 阶段气候预测表明,永久冻土下地区的 CAPE (86 ± 22%) 和降水 (17 ± 2%) 增加,导致夏季到本世纪末(2081-2100 年),闪电将增加 112 ± 38%。北部林线的未来闪速与目前以南 480 公里的北方森林中的水平相当。