Entering the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on supply chains. Reacting to the pandemic and adaptation in the “new normal” have been challenging tasks. Exiting the pandemic can lead to some after-shock effects such as “disruption tails.” While the research community has undertaken considerable efforts to predict the pandemic’s impacts and examine supply chain adaptive behaviors during the pandemic, little is known about supply chain management in the course of pandemic elimination and post-disruption recovery. If capacity and inventory management are unaware of the after-shock risks, this can result in highly destabilized production–inventory dynamics and decreased performance in the post-disruption period causing product deficits in the markets and high inventory costs in the supply chains. In this paper, we use a discrete-event simulation model to investigate some exit strategies for a supply chain in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our model can inform managers about the existence and risk of disruption tails in their supply chains and guide the selection of post-pandemic recovery strategies. Our results show that supply chains with postponed demand and shutdown capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic are particularly prone to disruption tails. We then developed and examined two strategies to avoid these disruption tails. First, we observed a conjunction of recovery and supply chain coordination which mitigates the impact of disruption tails by demand smoothing over time in the post-disruption period. Second, we found a gradual capacity ramp-up prior to expected peaks of postponed demand to be an effective strategy for disruption tail control.

进入 COVID-19 大流行对供应链造成了严重破坏。应对大流行病和适应“新常态”一直是一项艰巨的任务。退出大流行可能会导致一些余震效应，例如“中断尾巴”。尽管研究界已做出相当大的努力来预测大流行的影响并检查大流行期间的供应链适应性行为，但对大流行消除和中断后恢复过程中的供应链管理知之甚少。如果产能和库存管理没有意识到余震风险，这可能会导致生产-库存动态高度不稳定，并导致中断后时期的绩效下降，从而导致市场产品短缺和供应链中的高库存成本。在本文中，我们使用离散事件模拟模型来研究 COVID-19 大流行背景下供应链的一些退出策略。我们的模型可以告知管理人员其供应链中尾部中断的存在和风险，并指导大流行后恢复策略的选择。我们的结果表明，在 COVID-19 大流行期间需求延迟和产能关闭的供应链特别容易出现中断尾巴。然后，我们开发并研究了两种策略来避免这些中断尾巴。首先，我们观察到恢复和供应链协调的结合，它通过在中断后时期随着时间的推移平滑需求来减轻中断尾巴的影响。第二，