The study identifies the impact of the changes in human mobility due to the announcement of the state of emergency to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic on the Tokyo gasoline, diesel, and kerosene markets. Indices reflecting the movements in the visits to transit stations and workplaces were used to capture the changes in human mobility from February 2020 to February 2021. The linear and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models were applied to investigate the relationship between the changes in human mobility indices and fuel prices. Although only the kerosene price received an impact from the human mobility changes in the linear ARDL model, the NARDL model revealed that when human mobility was increasing, the fuel price was affected positively and the negative shocks in the mobility had an adverse influence on the fuel price. The results of the study imply the importance of providing subsidies when a state of emergency reduces fuel demands due to the decline in human mobility and negatively affects the fuel retail industry.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19大流行和东京燃料市场下的人员流动变化

该研究确定了由于宣布紧急状态以应对东京汽油，柴油和煤油市场上的COVID-19大流行而导致的人员流动变化的影响。反映出访过境车站和工作场所的动向的指标用于捕获2020年2月至2021年2月期间人类流动性的变化。线性和非线性ARDL（NARDL）模型用于研究人类流动性指数变化之间的关系。和燃油价格。尽管线性ARDL模型中只有煤油价格受到了人员流动性变化的影响，但NARDL模型显示，当人员流动性增加时，燃油价格受到正面影响，而流动性的负面冲击对燃油产生不利影响价格。