While increasing attention is given to how health reductions affect workers, estimating their effects is usually challenging. This paper aims to identify the causal effect of health deterioration on labor market outcomes by exploiting the incidence of stroke. Stroke, which often reduces health suddenly and unexpectedly, allows us to exploit the within-person random variation of the timing and isolate the effects of health reduction. By applying the fixed-effects method to a sample of stroke survivors in the University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study data, I find that stroke immediately halves the employment probability as well as hours and weeks worked 1 year after the occurrence and its effects persist for at least 3 years, while earnings reduction is relatively moderate and gradual. I also find the negative effects of stroke are larger among men with severe stroke and women with longer pre-stroke job tenure, while the effects are mitigated for younger women. These results make a stark contrast with the studies on other health events such as cancer diagnosis, which generally find much smaller effects and significant heterogeneity by education and occupation. This analysis shows that the labor market effects largely differ by types of diseases and calls for disease-specific studies in order to understand the social gradient in health and how workers adjust to work limitations.

中文翻译：

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突然健康减少对劳动力市场结果的影响：来自中风发病率的证据

虽然人们越来越关注健康减少如何影响工人，但估计其影响通常具有挑战性。本文旨在通过利用中风的发病率来确定健康恶化对劳动力市场结果的因果影响。中风通常会突然和意外地降低健康，这使我们能够利用人体内时间的随机变化并隔离健康降低的影响。通过将固定效应方法应用于密歇根大学健康与退休研究数据中的中风幸存者样本，我发现中风立即将就业概率以及发生后一年的工作小时数和周数减半，并且其影响持续了至少 3 年，而收益减少是相对温和和渐进的。我还发现中风的负面影响在严重中风的男性和中风前工作时间较长的女性中更大，而对年轻女性的影响则有所减轻。这些结果与对癌症诊断等其他健康事件的研究形成鲜明对比，后者通常发现教育和职业的影响要小得多，并且具有显着的异质性。该分析表明，劳动力市场的影响因疾病类型而异，并呼吁进行针对疾病的研究，以了解健康的社会梯度以及工人如何适应工作限制。通常发现受教育和职业的影响要小得多，并且具有显着的异质性。该分析表明，劳动力市场的影响因疾病类型而异，并呼吁进行针对疾病的研究，以了解健康的社会梯度以及工人如何适应工作限制。通常发现受教育和职业的影响要小得多，并且具有显着的异质性。该分析表明，劳动力市场的影响因疾病类型而异，并呼吁进行针对疾病的研究，以了解健康的社会梯度以及工人如何适应工作限制。