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A regional resource curse? A synthetic-control approach to oil extraction in Basilicata, Italy
Ecological Economics ( IF 7 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-05 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107041
Lorenzo Pellegrini , Luca Tasciotti , Andrea Spartaco

Basilicata is a region of Southern Italy where the expansion of oil operations in the 1990s was promoted as an opportunity to foster economic development. Flash-forward to 2020, Basilicata is one of the poorest regions in Italy despite the exploitation of some of the largest onshore hydrocarbon reserves within the European Union. The coincidence of high poverty rates with abundant natural resources suggests that the region is experiencing a ‘resource curse’; however, socio-economic problems predate the oil boom, complicating any causality claim. To disentangle and estimate the effects of oil exploitation, we employ the synthetic control method that compares the actual trends of development indicators of Basilicata with a counterfactual that is created by taking a weighted average of trends of other Italian regions –a ‘synthetic’ Basilicata.

The analysis finds that the development of oil operations has generated no detectable improvement to employment, nor to a range of social indicators, nor to educational attainment. The absence of quantifiable beneficial effects is coupled with negative impacts on other dimensions of development that are more difficult to estimate with our method –especially on the environment and human health. Taken together the evidence offers a sobering prospect over the potential of resource-based development for disadvantaged regions in developed countries.



中文翻译:

区域资源诅咒?意大利巴斯利卡塔的石油开采综合控制方法

巴斯利卡塔(Basilicata)是意大利南部的一个地区,在1990年代,石油业务的扩展得到了促进,这是促进经济发展的机会。尽管已经开采了欧盟内一些最大的陆上碳氢化合物储藏库,巴西利卡塔还是意大利最贫困的地区之一,到2020年,该区域将迅速发展。高贫困率与丰富的自然资源的巧合表明该地区正经历着“资源诅咒”。然而,在石油繁荣之前就存在社会经济问题,这使因果关系的主张变得更加复杂。为了弄清和估计石油开采的影响,我们采用综合控制方法,该方法将巴西利卡塔的发展指标的实际趋势与反事实进行了比较,该反事实是通过对意大利其他地区(一种“合成的”巴西利卡塔)的趋势进行加权平均得出的。

分析发现,石油业务的发展并未对就业,一系列社会指标或教育程度产生可察觉的改善。缺乏可量化的有益影响,加上对其他发展方面的负面影响,而使用我们的方法更难以估计,尤其是对环境和人类健康。综合起来,这些证据为发达国家处于不利地位的地区提供了基于资源的发展潜力的清醒前景。

更新日期:2021-04-05
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