当前位置: X-MOL 学术International Organization › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Threats at Home and Abroad: Interstate War, Civil War, and Alliance Formation
International Organization ( IF 5.754 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-05 , DOI: 10.1017/s0020818321000151
Jessica Edry , Jesse C. Johnson , Brett Ashley Leeds

In the current era, many of the military threats that state leaders face come from domestic and transnational nonstate actors. Military alliances are recognized as an important policy strategy to counter military threats, but existing research has primarily been focused on threats from other states and has difficulty uncovering a consistent relationship between external threat and alliance formation. We argue that this discrepancy arises from the failure to recognize that many threats are not external to the state. We contend that alliance formation is motivated both by external threats from other states and by internal threats that make civil conflict more likely. Moreover, we argue that leaders design alliance obligations differently when faced with internal threats. An empirical analysis of alliance formation from 1946 to 2009 shows that while external threats motivate the formation of defense pacts, internal threats encourage the formation of consultation pacts. Internal threats with the greatest potential for internationalization also encourage the formation of neutrality/nonaggression pacts. This research deepens our understanding of how states design security policies to deal with the threats posed by nonstate actors, a salient concern of leaders in the twenty-first century, and helps us to understand the variety of alliance obligations that we observe.

中文翻译:

国内外威胁:州际战争、内战和联盟组建

在当今时代,国家领导人面临的许多军事威胁来自国内和跨国非国家行为者。军事联盟被认为是应对军事威胁的重要政策战略,但现有研究主要集中在来自其他国家的威胁上,难以揭示外部威胁与联盟形成之间的一致关系。我们认为,这种差异源于未能认识到许多威胁并非来自国家之外。我们认为,联盟的形成既受到来自其他国家的外部威胁的推动,也受到使国内冲突更有可能发生的内部威胁的推动。此外,我们认为领导者在面对内部威胁时会以不同的方式设计联盟义务。对 1946 年至 2009 年联盟形成的实证分析表明,外部威胁促进了防御条约的形成,内部威胁促进了协商条约的形成。具有最大国际化潜力的内部威胁也鼓励中立/互不侵犯条约的形成。这项研究加深了我们对国家如何设计安全政策来应对非国家行为者构成的威胁的理解,这是 21 世纪领导人的一个突出问题,并帮助我们了解我们观察到的各种联盟义务。
更新日期:2021-04-05
down
wechat
bug