Convergence in per capita emissions occurs when countries with higher initial levels of per capita emissions experience lower emission growth than countries with lower initial levels of per capita emissions. The recent literature adopts the notion of stochastic convergence, which implies that per capita emissions tend to converge to a stationary level over time. The empirical literature on emissions convergence has yielded mixed results. We present new panel stationarity tests that account for cross-correlations and structural breaks. These new tests are more general than previous tests for stochastic convergence. Using annual data for 13 OPEC countries and 18 non-OPEC oil-producing countries from 1960 to 2016, we find less evidence of stochastic convergence than previous studies. The absence of convergence in per capita emissions across countries could hinder the acceptance of climate agreements based on the allocation of per capita emissions obligations. Policy actions to address emissions growth are also discussed.

当人均初始排放水平较高的国家的排放增长低于人均初始排放水平较低的国家的排放增长时，就会发生人均排放趋同。最近的文献采用了随机收敛的概念，这意味着随着时间的流逝，人均排放趋于收敛到固定水平。关于排放趋同的经验文献得出了不同的结果。我们提出了新的面板平稳性测试，该测试解决了相互关系和结构断裂的问题。对于随机收敛，这些新测试比以前的测试更具通用性。使用1960年至2016年间13个欧佩克国家和18个非欧佩克产油国的年度数据，我们发现随机趋同的证据比以前的研究少。各国人均排放量缺乏统一可能会阻碍接受基于人均排放量义务分配的气候协定。还讨论了解决排放量增长的政策措施。