Abstract

We extend theories about “immigration backlash” and right-wing populism in three ways by analyzing trend data to examine the interplay between views of immigration, partisan polarization, and voting patterns in presidential elections. First, we document how immigration views became more aligned with partisan polarization between 2000 and 2018. Second, we show that immigration views were significantly more predictive of voting for Donald Trump in 2016 compared to Republican presidential candidates in the 1992 through 2012 elections. Due to increased partisan polarization, the indirect effects of immigration views on presidential voting (as mediated through political ideology and party identification) also increased over time, and were stronger in 2016 compared to previous elections. Finally, we show evidence of a post-Trump backlash on immigration views, with political independents and Democrats becoming significantly more favorable toward immigration after 2016. By 2018, the American public was more polarized over matters of immigration than at any time previous in the available data, and these views corresponded more strongly with voting patterns. These findings highlight the increasing importance of immigration for understanding partisan politics in the contemporary U.S., and reiterate the importance of anti-immigrant sentiment and partisan polarization to the success of right-wing populism in electoral democracies.

摘要

我们通过分析趋势数据以三种方式扩展关于“移民反弹”和右翼民粹主义的理论，以检查移民观点、党派两极分化和总统选举投票模式之间的相互作用。首先，我们记录了 2000 年至 2018 年期间移民观点如何与党派两极分化更加一致。其次，我们表明，与 1992 年至 2012 年选举中的共和党总统候选人相比，移民观点对 2016 年唐纳德特朗普投票的预测性更强。由于党派两极分化加剧，移民观点对总统选举的间接影响（通过政治意识形态和政党认同进行调解）也随着时间的推移而增加，与之前的选举相比，2016 年的影响更大。最后，我们展示了特朗普后对移民观点的强烈反对的证据，政治独立人士和民主党人在 2016 年之后变得更加支持移民。 到 2018 年，美国公众在移民问题上的两极分化比现有数据中的任何时候都要多，这些观点更符合投票模式。这些发现强调了移民对于理解当代美国党派政治的重要性日益增加，并重申了反移民情绪和党派两极分化对选举民主国家右翼民粹主义成功的重要性。在现有数据中，美国公众在移民问题上比以往任何时候都更加两极分化，而且这些观点与投票模式更加一致。这些发现强调了移民对于理解当代美国党派政治的重要性日益增加，并重申了反移民情绪和党派两极分化对选举民主国家右翼民粹主义成功的重要性。在现有数据中，美国公众在移民问题上比以往任何时候都更加两极分化，而且这些观点与投票模式更加一致。这些发现强调了移民对于理解当代美国党派政治的重要性日益增加，并重申了反移民情绪和党派两极分化对选举民主国家右翼民粹主义成功的重要性。