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‘He seems odd’: the effects of risk-irrelevant information and actuarial risk estimates on mock jurors’ perceptions of sexual recidivism risk
Psychology, Crime & Law ( IF 1.193 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-02 , DOI: 10.1080/1068316x.2021.1909016
Jennifer Kamorowski, Karl Ask, Maartje Schreuder, Marko Jelícic, Corine de Ruiter

ABSTRACT

Previous research has shown that mock and actual jurors give little weight to actuarial sexual offending recidivism risk estimates when making decisions regarding civil commitment for so-called sexually violent predators (SVPs). We hypothesized that non-risk related factors, such as irrelevant contextual information and jurors’ information-processing style, would influence mock jurors’ perceptions of sexual recidivism risk. This preregistered experimental study examined the effects of mock jurors’ (N = 427) need for cognition (NFC), irrelevant contextual information in the form of the offender’s social attractiveness, and an actuarial risk estimate on mock jurors’ estimates of sexual recidivism risk related to a simulated SVP case vignette. Mock jurors exposed to negative risk-irrelevant characteristics of the offender estimated sexual recidivism risk as higher than mock jurors exposed to positive information about the offender. However, this effect was no longer significant after mock jurors had reviewed Static-99R actuarial risk estimate information. We found no support for the hypothesis that the level of NFC moderates the relationship between risk-irrelevant contextual information and risk estimates. Future research could explore additional individual characteristics or attitudes among mock jurors that may influence perceptions of sexual recidivism risk and insensitivity to actuarial risk estimates.



中文翻译:

``他似乎很奇怪'':与风险无关的信息和精算风险估计对模拟陪审员对性累犯风险的理解的影响

摘要

先前的研究表明,在对所谓的性暴力掠夺者(SVP)做出民事承诺的决策时,模拟陪审员和实际陪审员对精算性违法累犯风险的估计很少。我们假设与风险无关的因素(例如无关的上下文信息和陪审员的信息处理方式)将影响模拟陪审员对性累犯风险的看法。这项预先注册的实验研究检验了模拟陪审员(N = 427)认知需求(NFC),犯罪者的社会吸引力形式的无关上下文信息,以及模拟陪审员对与模拟SVP案例插图相关的性累犯风险的精算风险估计。暴露于犯罪者与风险无关的负面特征的模拟陪审员,估计其累犯风险要高于暴露于有关犯罪者的正面信息的模拟陪审员。但是,在模拟陪审员审查了Static-99R精算风险估计信息后,这种影响不再显着。对于NFC的水平会缓和与风险无关的上下文信息和风险估计之间的关系的假设,我们没有发现任何支持。

更新日期:2021-04-02
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