ABSTRACT

Previous research has shown that mock and actual jurors give little weight to actuarial sexual offending recidivism risk estimates when making decisions regarding civil commitment for so-called sexually violent predators (SVPs). We hypothesized that non-risk related factors, such as irrelevant contextual information and jurors’ information-processing style, would influence mock jurors’ perceptions of sexual recidivism risk. This preregistered experimental study examined the effects of mock jurors’ (N = 427) need for cognition (NFC), irrelevant contextual information in the form of the offender’s social attractiveness, and an actuarial risk estimate on mock jurors’ estimates of sexual recidivism risk related to a simulated SVP case vignette. Mock jurors exposed to negative risk-irrelevant characteristics of the offender estimated sexual recidivism risk as higher than mock jurors exposed to positive information about the offender. However, this effect was no longer significant after mock jurors had reviewed Static-99R actuarial risk estimate information. We found no support for the hypothesis that the level of NFC moderates the relationship between risk-irrelevant contextual information and risk estimates. Future research could explore additional individual characteristics or attitudes among mock jurors that may influence perceptions of sexual recidivism risk and insensitivity to actuarial risk estimates.

摘要

先前的研究表明，在就所谓的性暴力掠夺者 (SVP) 的民事承诺做出决定时，模拟陪审员和实际陪审员对精算性犯罪累犯风险估计的重视程度很小。我们假设非风险相关因素，例如不相关的上下文信息和陪审员的信息处理方式，会影响模拟陪审员对性累犯风险的看法。这项预先注册的实验研究检验了模拟陪审员（N = 427) 认知需求 (NFC)、犯罪者社会吸引力形式的不相关上下文信息，以及模拟陪审员对与模拟 SVP 案例小插曲相关的性累犯风险估计的精算风险估计。暴露于与犯罪者的负面风险无关特征的模拟陪审员估计的性累犯风险高于暴露于犯罪者正面信息的模拟陪审员。然而，在模拟陪审员审查了 Static-99R 精算风险估计信息后，这种影响不再显着。我们发现不支持以下假设：NFC 水平调节与风险无关的上下文信息和风险估计之间的关系。