ABSTRACT

Contrary to the Great and other past US Recessions, the reduction in services consumption exceeds the decline in nondurables consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic. We study the drivers of this unprecedented phenomenon through the lens of an estimated multi-sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that distinguishes between nondurables and services sectors. We find that economic uncertainty is once again important, but it does not generate sectoral heterogeneity. Demand-side factors reallocating consumption across sectors and proxying for voluntary and regulatory social distancing measures, as well as the lack of wage adjustments in services despite plummeting employment, became influential during the pandemic.

摘要

与美国大衰退和过去的其他衰退相反，在 COVID-19 大流行期间，服务消费的下降超过了非耐用品消费的下降。我们通过估计的多部门动态随机一般均衡 (DSGE) 模型来研究这种前所未有的现象的驱动因素，该模型区分了非耐用品和服务部门。我们发现经济不确定性再次重要，但它不会产生部门异质性。在大流行期间，需求方面的因素重新分配了跨部门的消费并替代了自愿和监管的社会疏离措施，以及尽管就业人数大幅下降但服务业工资调整不足，这些因素都变得有影响力。