We analyze the impact of government size, measured by total spending per capita, on tax evasion at the provincial level in Italy over the period 2001–2015. In order to solve endogeneity issues we rely on a system GMM and find that public expenditure negatively affects tax evasion, as taxpayers perceive the government is efficiently spending resources coming from the tax levy. Results are confirmed when we (1) consider expenditures related to long-term investments, namely capital spending per capita, and (2) directly test the impact of government efficiency on tax evasion. In addition, we show that the impact of public spending is heterogeneous across geographical areas: an increase in public expenditure leads to a downward shift in tax evasion only in the northern part of Italy, characterized by a relatively larger initial level of public goods provision.

我们分析了政府规模（以人均总支出衡量）对 2001 年至 2015 年期间意大利省级逃税行为的影响。为了解决内生性问题，我们依靠系统 GMM 并发现公共支出会对逃税产生负面影响，因为纳税人认为政府正在有效地花费来自税收征税的资源。当我们 (1) 考虑与长期投资相关的支出，即人均资本支出，以及 (2) 直接测试政府效率对逃税的影响时，结果得到了证实。此外，我们表明公共支出的影响在不同地理区域是异质的：公共支出的增加导致逃税仅在意大利北部地区向下转移，