This paper introduces endogenous technological change in a Hotelling-Herfindahl model of natural resource use to study the recent developments in the U.S. natural gas industry. We consider optimal forward-looking technology investments, and study implications for the order of extraction of conventional and shale gas, and a backstop technology, and characterize the development of gas prices. We find that technology investments increase during the extraction of conventional gas. Once production shifts towards shale gas, investments decline. Consistent with current trends, our theory explains how gas prices can follow a U-shaped path. The calibrated model suggests that U.S. shale gas production continues to grow and prices continue to decrease until 2050. We analytically and numerically show that the introduction of a carbon tax would reduce technology investments, and thus could drastically change the temporal patterns of U.S. shale gas extraction. The forward-looking behaviour of firms is crucial for such an effect, which does not occur in models that treat the improvement in extraction technology as an unanticipated shock to the industry.

本文在自然资源使用的Hotelling-Herfindahl模型中介绍了内源性技术变化，以研究美国天然气行业的最新发展。我们考虑最佳的前瞻性技术投资，并研究常规和页岩气的开采顺序，支撑技术的含义，并确定天然气价格的走势。我们发现，在常规天然气的开采过程中，技术投资增加了。一旦生产转向页岩气，投资就会减少。与当前趋势一致，我们的理论解释了天然气价格如何遵循U形路径。校准后的模型表明，到2050年，美国页岩气产量将继续增长，价格将继续下降。我们通过分析和数字分析表明，征收碳税会减少技术投资，从而可能会大大改变美国页岩气开采的时间格局。公司的前瞻性行为对于实现这种效果至关重要，而在将提取技术的改进视为对行业造成意料之外的冲击的模型中，这是不会发生的。