Due to the fact that rent-seeking is by definition an unobservable variable, measuring its size and evolution over the business cycle can be a daunting challenge. In this article, by embedding rent-seeking behavior in an otherwise standard open-economy DSGE model, we are able to derive a quarterly time series of this variable (expressed as a percentage deviation from the trend) for an emerging economy such as Brazil. The estimated series, spanning the period 2002Q1−2017Q4, shows a strong positive correlation with the “Commodity Super Cycle” of the 2000 decade and falls as a result of some political scandals and their ensuing investigations, among other driving forces. We also rely on the same model to assess how several shocks hitting the economy affect both rent-seeking and the relevant macroeconomic variables in our model. Barring monetary expansions, increased exports and higher income transfers to households, expansionary shocks are associated with lower rent-seeking activity. Factoring in these two sets of results, the upshot is that rent-seeking behavior shows a pattern of procyclicality in the Brazilian economy.

由于寻租根据定义是一个不可观察的变量，因此衡量其规模和在商业周期中的演变可能是一项艰巨的挑战。在本文中，通过将寻租行为嵌入到其他标准的开放经济 DSGE 模型中，我们能够为巴西等新兴经济体推导出该变量的季度时间序列（表示为与趋势的百分比偏差）。估计的序列跨越 2002 年第一季度至 2017 年第四季度，与 2000 年的“商品超级周期”显示出很强的正相关性，并且由于一些政治丑闻及其随后的调查以及其他驱动力而下降。我们还依赖相同的模型来评估冲击经济的几次冲击如何影响我们模型中的寻租和相关宏观经济变量。除非货币扩张、出口增加和家庭收入转移增加，否则扩张性冲击与较低的寻租活动有关。将这两组结果考虑在内，结果是寻租行为显示出巴西经济的顺周期性模式。