For ships navigating in ice-covered waters, fatigue damage due to ice loads is an important issue. The purpose of this paper is to provide ship researchers and engineers with a simulation-based procedure for a probabilistic fatigue damage assessment of ships moving through a level ice field. A novel procedure for fatigue damage assessment using numerical simulations is developed, and a hypothetical scenario with the Xuelong 2 icebreaker is used to illustrate the procedure. Long-duration time-domain simulations are performed to generate samples of the ice-load peaks due to ship-ice interactions. Based on the average conditional exceedance rate (ACER) method, the extreme value statistics of the line load peaks are predicted, and subsequently, the fatigue stresses caused by ice loads are estimated by means of beam theory. Several analytical models are applied to describe the probability distribution of the stress amplitudes, and the fatigue damage is calculated based on S-N curves and the Palmgren-Miner formula. Furthermore, a quantification of the effects of uncertainties related to discretization errors (mesh size, reference period), ship-model properties, choice of boundary conditions, and S-N curves is performed.

对于在覆冰水域中航行的船舶而言，由于冰负荷造成的疲劳损坏是一个重要的问题。本文的目的是为船舶研究人员和工程师提供基于模拟的程序，用于评估在水平冰原中行驶的船舶的概率疲劳损伤评估。开发了一种使用数值模拟进行疲劳损伤评估的新方法，并提出了使用“雪龙2号”的假设方案破冰船用于说明该过程。进行长时间的时域模拟以生成由于船冰相互作用而产生的冰负荷峰的样本。基于平均条件超标率（ACER）方法，预测线负荷峰值的极值统计，然后，利用梁理论估算由冰负荷引起的疲劳应力。应用几种分析模型来描述应力振幅的概率分布，并基于SN曲线和Palmgren-Miner公式计算疲劳损伤。此外，对与离散化误差（网格大小，参考周期），船模属性，边界条件的选择和SN曲线有关的不确定性的影响进行了量化。