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Examining the connection among national tourism expenditure and economic growth in Algeria
Future Business Journal Pub Date : 2021-04-01 , DOI: 10.1186/s43093-021-00059-8
Salah Eddine Sari Hassoun , Khayereddine Salim Adda , Asma Hadjira Sebbane

Tourism is one of the most important sectors for several researchers and decision makers, due to its influence on the world economic growth in the twenty-first century, making it as a source of competition between countries to a global industry for its effective strategic role in the development of countries. In this paper, we used two variables natural logarithm of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and natural logarithm of per capita international and national tourism expenditure (ITE) to study the relationship between the tourism sector and economic growth in Algeria over the period of 1995–2017. We established with the unit root test with and without breakpoint that the variables are stationary in the first difference and there is a structural break in (ITE) and (GDP). Thus, with the presence of a breakpoint, we employed the methodology of Gregory–Hansen to avoid such issue, but we found that there was no evidence of cointegration with breakpoint, so then we used the vector autoregressive model (VAR). The model showed that the tourism sector has a positive and insignificant coefficient on the economic growth, while the economic growth factor has a positive and significant on the tourism sector. In the short run, there was a one-way causality from GDP to ITE at the level of 1%, confirming the economic-driven tourism growth hypothesis. Also, we found with Breitung and Candelon causality that there was same causality at the level of 10%.



中文翻译:

研究国家旅游支出与阿尔及利亚经济增长之间的联系

由于旅游业对二十一世纪的世界经济增长产生了影响,因此对于一些研究人员和决策者来说,旅游业是最重要的行业之一,由于其在世界经济中的有效战略作用,使其成为国家与全球产业竞争的源泉。国家发展。在本文中,我们使用两个变量的人均国内生产总值(GDP)的自然对数和人均国际和国家旅游支出(ITE)的自然对数来研究阿尔及利亚在这段时期内旅游业与经济增长之间的关系。 1995年至2017年。我们使用带有和不带有断点的单位根检验确定,变量在第一个差异中是固定的,并且(ITE)和(GDP)存在结构性断裂。因此,在存在断点的情况下,我们采用Gregory–Hansen的方法来避免此类问题,但我们发现没有证据表明具有断点的协整性,因此我们使用了矢量自回归模型(VAR)。该模型表明,旅游业对经济增长具有正向和微不足道的系数,而经济增长因子对旅游业具有正向和显着的影响。在短期内,从GDP到ITE的单向因果关系为1%,这证实了经济驱动的旅游业增长假说。此外,我们发现,与Breitung和Candelon的因果关系在10%的水平上也存在相同的因果关系。该模型表明,旅游业对经济增长具有正向和微不足道的系数,而经济增长因子对旅游业具有正向和显着的影响。在短期内,从GDP到ITE的单向因果关系为1%,这证实了经济驱动的旅游业增长假说。此外,我们发现,与Breitung和Candelon的因果关系在10%的水平上也存在相同的因果关系。该模型表明,旅游业对经济增长具有正向和微不足道的系数,而经济增长因子对旅游业具有正向和显着的影响。在短期内,从GDP到ITE的单向因果关系为1%,这证实了经济驱动的旅游业增长假说。此外,我们发现,与Breitung和Candelon的因果关系在10%的水平上也存在相同的因果关系。

更新日期:2021-04-01
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