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A comprehensive set of global scenarios of housing, mobility, and material efficiency for material cycles and energy systems modeling
Journal of Industrial Ecology ( IF 5.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-31 , DOI: 10.1111/jiec.13122
Tomer Fishman 1 , Niko Heeren 2, 3 , Stefan Pauliuk 4 , Peter Berrill 2 , Qingshi Tu 2, 5 , Paul Wolfram 2 , Edgar G. Hertwich 2, 3
Affiliation  

Scenario‐based assessments are a useful tool to explore unknown futures and inform decision makers and the public of the consequences of different courses of action. Scenario developments in industrial ecology have focused on disparate components of the socioeconomic metabolism and case studies, and few efforts of comprehensive and cumulative scenario formulation are documented. Many important, empirically derived relationships between material cycles, end‐use services, and energy use are relevant to global scenario modeling efforts, for example, of integrated assessment models (IAMs), which do not routinely describe material cycles or the life‐cycle impacts of various technology shifts. These inconsistent depictions of material cycles and their environmental impacts hinder the assessment of sustainable development strategies such as demand‐side sufficiency, material efficiency, and energy efficiency. We developed three highly detailed scenarios covering 20 global regions to 2060 for the service provisioning of dwelling area and personal transport grounded in salient building and vehicle operation parameters. Our scenarios are based on, and interface with, the Low Energy Demand (LED) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1 and SSP2) narratives. The results comprise scenario‐, region‐, and period‐specific narratives and corresponding parameter values, including per‐capita floor space and vehicle stocks, building and vehicle archetype mixes, passenger‐km, vehicle‐km, vehicle occupancy rates, and implementation potentials of nine material efficiency strategies. The explicit storyline extension approach presented here is an alternative to the aggregate GDP‐driven or historical trend extrapolations of service or energy demands. We describe the scenario formulation processes, resulting parameters, their applications, and offer an outlook for prospective sustainability models. This article met the requirements for a Gold‐Gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

中文翻译:

针对材料循环和能源系统建模的住房,移动性和材料效率的一整套全球情景

基于情景的评估是探索未知未来并告知决策者和公众不同行动方案的后果的有用工具。工业生态学中的场景发展集中在社会经济新陈代谢和案例研究的不同组成部分上,很少有文献记载了全面和累积的场景制定工作。物质周期,最终使用服务和能源使用之间的许多重要的凭经验得出的关系都与全球情景建模工作相关,例如,集成评估模型(IAM)并未定期描述物质周期或生命周期影响各种技术变化。这些对物质循环及其对环境的影响的不一致描述阻碍了对可持续发展战略(如需求方的充足性,物质效率和能源效率)的评估。我们开发了三个非常详细的方案,涉及到2060年至2060年的全球区域,用于根据显着建筑物和车辆运行参数提供的居住区和个人运输服务。我们的方案基于“低能耗需求(LED)”和“共享社会经济途径”(SSP1和SSP2)叙述并与之互动。结果包括特定于场景,区域和时期的叙述以及相应的参数值,包括人均占地面积和车辆存量,建筑物和车辆原型组合,乘客公里,车辆公里,车辆占用率,九种材料效率策略的实施潜力。本文提供的显式故事情节扩展方法是服务或能源需求的GDP驱动或历史趋势总推断的替代方法。我们描述了方案制定过程,所得参数及其应用,并提供了未来可持续性模型的前景。本文满足了金金的要求在http://jie.click/badges中描述的JIE数据开放性徽章。
更新日期:2021-04-23
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