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Were Foreign Exchange Markets Reacting Negatively to Political Events? The Case of Malaysia
South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance Pub Date : 2021-04-01 , DOI: 10.1177/2277978721995649
Hon Chung Hui 1
Affiliation  

This article explores the effects of political events on foreign exchange returns in Malaysia. We identify five political events in recent history, namely the 13th General Election (GE13), the imprisonment of a key opposition politician, the scandal from the 1MDB exposé, the appointment of a new Central Bank Governor and the 14th General Election (GE14). Using event studies, our findings show that the imprisonment of the opposition party leader triggered a favourable response from the foreign exchange market. However, market reactions to the 1MDB scandal were largely unfavourable. The GE13 triggered unfavourable market response, while the reverse is true for market reactions to GE14. Market response to the appointment of the new Central Bank Governor was rather positive. The Event Study is the first of its kind that examines the foreign exchange market implications of key political events in Malaysia. There are practical considerations that emanate from these findings.

JEL Classification: F31, D72, D73, O38



中文翻译:

外汇市场是否对政治事件做出了消极反应?马来西亚案

本文探讨了政治事件对马来西亚外汇收益的影响。我们确定了近期历史上的五个政治事件,分别是第十三届大选(GE13),关键反对派政治家的入狱,1MDB曝光丑闻,任命新的央行行长和第十四届大选(GE14)。通过事件研究,我们的发现表明,反对党领导人的入狱引发了外汇市场的积极回应。但是,市场对1MDB丑闻的反应在很大程度上是不利的。GE13引发了不利的市场反应,而对GE14的市场反应则相反。市场对任命新中央银行行长的反应相当积极。事件研究是同类研究中的第一篇,它研究了马来西亚主要政治事件对外汇市场的影响。这些发现有一些实际的考虑。

JEL分类: F31,D72,D73,O38

更新日期:2021-04-01
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