Large volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model ‐ Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions.

中文翻译：

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全球气候对上个千年古同化资料和气候模式模拟中大型热带火山喷发的响应

在数年至数十年的时间尺度上，大型火山喷发是对全球和区域大气温度的主要扰动之一。然而，以古气候代理和气候模式为特征的火山喷发引起的地表温度降温的估计幅度和持续性仍然存在差异。我们使用两种最新的数据同化产品，古流体动力学数据同化产品（PHYDA）和最新千年再分析（LMR）以及来自美国国家大气研究共同体地球系统中心-上千年组合（NCAR CESM-LME）。我们发现PHYDA和LMR估算意味着，一旦消除了短时间连续爆发带来的影响，全球和半球的冷却在强度和持久性上都相似。这些估计值也可以与仅基于或部分基于树轮密度的北半球重建进行比较，后者被认为是最准确的火山活动引起的地表冷却的替代估计。所有基于代理的估算值也与CESM-LME模拟的平均冷却量非常吻合。但是，PHYDA，LMR和CESM-LME中温度响应的空间模式仍然存在差异。相对于CESM-LME，PHYDA和LMR中冷却异常的持续时间也持续了数年。