ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the prominent failure modes of educational facilities by using field observations. Specifically, damage to the roof covering, roof structure and exterior windows were quantified. An archetype of these structures is modeled in a Monte Carlo Simulation wherein the probabilistic resistance capacities of the building envelope components are compared to their corresponding probabilistic wind loads. The probability of exceedance is then evaluated at three levels of damage state per 3-s gust wind speeds. For the vulnerability curve, the results were fitted into a cumulative probability density function with a mean of 4.7314 and a standard deviation of 0.4061. The results of the model are then evaluated through a case study of Typhoon Nina 2016. The model generally underpredicts the mean damage ratio per municipality by about 13.17% for wind speeds of 40.225 m/s and by about 3–6% for wind speeds between 49 m/s to 71 m/s. The reported damage by the respective government authorities was aggregated on a municipality level and compared to the performance of the model. A statistical analysis between the reported and mean predicted damage was also done by using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. The results yielded a positive correlation of 0.856.

摘要

本文通过现场观察调查了教育设施的突出失效模式。具体来说，对屋顶覆盖物、屋顶结构和外窗的损坏进行了量化。这些结构的原型在蒙特卡罗模拟中建模，其中将建筑围护结构组件的概率阻力能力与其相应的概率风荷载进行比较。然后在每 3 秒阵风风速的三个损坏状态级别评估超出概率。对于脆弱性曲线，结果被拟合成一个累积概率密度函数，平均值为 4.7314，标准差为 0.4061。然后通过 2016 年台风妮娜的案例研究对模型的结果进行评估。该模型通常低估了每个城市的平均损害率约 13。对于 40.225 m/s 的风速为 17%，对于 49 m/s 至 71 m/s 的风速约为 3-6%。各政府当局报告的损害在市一级汇总，并与模型的性能进行比较。还通过使用 Spearman 等级相关系数对报告的和平均预测的损害进行了统计分析。结果产生了0.856的正相关。