Despite the low chance of a person being bitten by a shark, there are serious associated costs. Electronic deterrents are currently the only types of personal deterrent with empirical evidence of a substantial reduction in the probability of being bitten by a shark. We aimed to predict the number of people who could potentially avoid being bitten by sharks in Australia if they wear personal electronic deterrents. We used the Australian Shark Attack File from 1900 to 2020 to develop sinusoidal time-series models of per capita incidents, and then stochastically projected these to 2066. We predicted that up to 1063 people (range: 185–2118) could potentially avoid being bitten across Australia by 2066 if all people used the devices. Avoiding death and injury of people over the next half-century is of course highly desirable, especially when considering the additional costs associated with the loss of recreational, commercial and tourism revenue potentially in the tens to hundreds of millions of dollars following clusters of shark-bite events.

尽管一个人被鲨鱼咬伤的几率很小，但仍要付出沉重的代价。电子威慑是目前唯一的个人威慑类型，有经验证据表明被鲨鱼咬伤的可能性大大降低了。我们的目标是预测在戴有个人电子威慑剂的情况下有可能避免在澳大利亚被鲨鱼咬伤的人数。我们使用了1900年至2020年的澳大利亚鲨鱼袭击档案，建立了人均正弦时间序列模型事件，然后随机地将其预测到2066年。我们预测，如果所有人都使用该设备，那么到2066年，多达1063人（范围：185-2118）有可能避免在澳大利亚各地被叮咬。在接下来的半个世纪中，避免人员伤亡当然是非常可取的，特别是考虑到与娱乐，商业和旅游业收入损失相关的额外成本，可能会导致成千上万的鲨鱼袭击。咬事件。