Abstract

COVID-19 led to a massive shutdown of businesses in the second quarter of 2020. Estimates from the Current Population Survey, for example, indicate that the number of active business owners dropped by 22% from February to April 2020. We provide the first analysis of losses in sales among the universe of businesses in California using administrative data from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. Losses in taxable sales average 17% in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the second quarter of 2019 even though year-over-year sales typically grow by 3-4%. We find that sales losses were largest in businesses affected by mandatory lockdowns such as accommodations, which lost 91%, whereas online sales grew by 180%. Placing business types into different categories based on whether they were considered essential or nonessential (and thus subject to early lockdowns) and whether they have a moderate or high level of person-to-person contact, we find interesting correlations between sales losses and COVID-19 cases per capita across counties in California. The results suggest that local implementation and enforcement of lockdown restrictions as safety measures for public health and voluntary behavioral responses as reactions to the perceived local COVID-19 spread both played a role.

Plain English Summary

Business sales dropped by 17% on average due to the pandemic during the second quarter of 2020 in California. Accommodations lost 91% of sales, whereas online sales grew by 180%. Sales fell more steeply in counties with more COVID-19 cases. We examine how much businesses lost in sales using administrative sales tax data. The average losses of 17% in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the second quarter of 2019 occurred even though year-over-year sales typically grow by 3-4%. We find that sales losses were largest in businesses affected by mandatory lockdowns such as accommodations, drinking places, and arts, entertainment, and recreation. Distinguishing between essential and nonessential businesses, which were subject to early lockdowns, and by the level of person-to-person contact, we find that local implementation and enforcement of lockdown restrictions for public health safety and voluntary responses to the perceived local COVID-19 spread both played a role. The results suggest that small businesses may need more support from governments and consumers to mitigate the strong shift to online vendors, and that the pandemic must be brought under control as a prerequisite to a full recovery.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19大流行对企业销售的早期影响

摘要

COVID-19导致2020年第二季度企业大量停业。例如，根据《当前人口调查》进行的估算表明，从2020年2月到2020年4月，活跃企业主的数量下降了22％。我们提供了第一个分析使用来自加利福尼亚州税务和费用管理局的管理数据来估算加利福尼亚州整个企业的销售损失。相对于2019年第二季度，2020年第二季度的应税销售额损失平均为17％，尽管同比销售额通常增长3-4％。我们发现，在受到强制性锁定影响的企业中，如住宿等，其销售损失最大，损失了91％，而在线销售则增长了180％。根据业务类型被认为是必不可少的还是不必要的（因此会受到早期锁定），以及它们是否具有中等或较高的人际联系水平，将其划分为不同的类别，我们发现销售损失与COVID-加利福尼亚各县的人均19例。结果表明，在当地实施和实施封锁限制作为公共卫生的安全措施，以及对感知到的本地COVID-19传播做出反应的自愿行为响应都发挥了作用。

普通英语摘要

由于2020年第二季度加利福尼亚州的大流行，企业销售平均下降了17％。住宿损失了91％的销售额，而在线销售则增长了180％。在有更多COVID-19病例的县中，销售下降幅度更大。我们使用行政营业税数据来检查有多少企业在销售中损失了多少。尽管同比销售额通常增长3-4％，但2020年第二季度相对于2019年第二季度的平均损失还是发生了17％。我们发现，在受到强制性封锁影响的企业中，例如住宿，饮酒场所以及艺术，娱乐和休闲，销售损失最大。区分需要提前锁定的重要业务和非必要业务，以及按人与人之间的联系程度，我们发现，针对公共卫生安全的本地实施和锁定限制的实施以及对本地COVID-19传播的自愿响应都发挥了作用。结果表明，小型企业可能需要政府和消费者的更多支持，以减轻向在线供应商的强烈转移，大流行必须得到控制，这是全面恢复的前提。