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A time-delay COVID-19 propagation model considering supply chain transmission and hierarchical quarantine rate
Advances in Difference Equations ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-30 , DOI: 10.1186/s13662-021-03342-8
Fangfang Yang , Zizhen Zhang

In this manuscript, we investigate a novel Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Quarantined–Recovered (SEIQR) COVID-19 propagation model with two delays, and we also consider supply chain transmission and hierarchical quarantine rate in this model. Firstly, we analyze the existence of an equilibrium, including a virus-free equilibrium and a virus-existence equilibrium. Then local stability and the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation have been researched by thinking of time delay as the bifurcation parameter. Besides, we calculate direction and stability of the Hopf bifurcation. Finally, we carry out some numerical simulations to prove the validity of theoretical results.



中文翻译:

考虑供应链传输和分层隔离率的时滞COVID-19传播模型

在本手稿中,我们研究了具有两个延迟的新型易感-暴露-感染-隔离-恢复(SEIQR)COVID-19传播模型,并且在此模型中我们还考虑了供应链传递和分层隔离率。首先,我们分析了一个平衡的存在,包括一个无病毒的平衡和一个病毒存在的平衡。然后,以时延为分岔参数,研究了局部稳定性和Hopf分岔的发生。此外,我们计算了霍普夫分支的方向和稳定性。最后,我们进行了一些数值模拟,以证明理论结果的正确性。

更新日期:2021-03-30
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