ABSTRACT

This paper sets out to explore whether the Turkish geopolitical uncertainty exhibits significant linkages with fluctuations in the Turkish lira (TRY) values against other currencies. The period examined covers the Erdoğan administration (March 2003 up to the present). The innovative geopolitical uncertainty index by Caldara and Iacoviello and modern GARCH methodologies are adopted in order to explore how geopolitical risk influences currency values and the overall economy during this turbulent period. Econometric outcomes reveal that geopolitical uncertainty leads to devaluation of TRY against the US dollar, the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona but in a non-significant manner whereas mixed results emerge concerning the impacts of macroeconomic or financial variables.

摘要

本文旨在探讨土耳其地缘政治的不确定性是否与土耳其里拉 (TRY) 对其他货币的价值波动存在显着联系。审查期间涵盖埃尔多安政府（2003 年 3 月至今）。采用 Caldara 和 Iacoviello 的创新地缘政治不确定性指数和现代 GARCH 方法，以探索在这个动荡时期地缘政治风险如何影响货币价值和整体经济。计量经济学结果显示，地缘政治不确定性导致土耳其里拉兑美元、瑞士法郎和瑞典克朗贬值，但贬值幅度不显着，而宏观经济或金融变量的影响则出现好坏参半的结果。