Increased demand for power generation coupled with changing seasonal water uncertainty has caused a worldwide increase in the construction of large hydrologic engineering structures. That said, the soon-to-be-completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will impound the Blue Nile River in Western Ethiopia and its reservoir will encompass ~ 1763 km² and store ~ 67 Gt (km³) of surface water. The impoundment will undergo maximum seasonal load changes of ~ 28 to ~ 36 Gt during projected seasonal hydroelectric operations. The GERD impoundment will cause significant subsurficial stresses, and could possibly trigger seismicity in the region. This study examines Coulomb stress and hydrologic load centroid movements for several GERD impoundment and operational scenarios. The maximum subsurficial Coulomb stress applied on optimally oriented fault planes from the full impoundment is ~ 186 kPa and over 30% of our model domain incurs Coulomb stresses ≥ 10 kPa, regardless of the impoundment period length. The main driver behind Coulomb stress and load centroid motion during impoundment is the annual, accumulated daily reservoir storage change. The maximum Coulomb stresses from the highest amplitude season of five long-term operational scenarios are around 36, 33, 29, 41, and 24% of the total maximum stresses from the entire GERD impoundment. Variations in annual Coulomb stresses during modeled GERD operations are attributed to the seasonal load per unit area, and partially to the initial seasonal water level. The spatial patterns and amplitudes of these stress tensors are closely linked to both the size and timing of GERD inflow/outflow rates, and an improved understanding of the magnitude and extent of these stresses provides useful information to water managers to better understand potential reservoir triggered seismic events from several different operational and impoundment strategies.

发电需求的增加以及季节性水不确定性的变化导致全球大型水文工程结构的建设增加。也就是说，即将完工的埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝 (GERD) 将蓄积埃塞俄比亚西部的青尼罗河，其水库面积约为 1763 平方公里，蓄水量约为⁶⁷ Gt (km ³) 地表水。在预计的季节性水电运行期间，蓄水池将经历约 28 至约 36 Gt 的最大季节性负荷变化。GERD 蓄水池将造成显着的地下应力，并可能引发该地区的地震活动。本研究检查了几种 GERD 蓄水和操作场景的库仑应力和水文载荷质心运动。从完全蓄水区施加在最佳定向断层面上的最大地下库仑应力约为 186 kPa，超过 30% 的模型域会产生 ≥ 10 kPa 的库仑应力，无论蓄水期长短如何。蓄水期间库仑应力和载荷质心运动的主要驱动因素是每年累积的每日水库蓄水量变化。五个长期运行情景的最高振幅季节的最大库仑应力分别约为整个 GERD 蓄水池最大总应力的 36%、33%、29%、41% 和 24%。在模拟 GERD 操作期间，年库仑应力的变化归因于每单位面积的季节性负荷，部分归因于初始季节性水位。这些应力张量的空间模式和幅度与 GERD 流入/流出速率的大小和时间密切相关，对这些应力的幅度和范围的更好理解为水管理人员提供了有用的信息，以更好地了解潜在的水库触发地震来自几种不同的操作和蓄水策略的事件。以及来自整个 GERD 蓄水池的总最大应力的 24%。在模拟 GERD 操作期间，年库仑应力的变化归因于每单位面积的季节性负荷，部分归因于初始季节性水位。这些应力张量的空间模式和幅度与 GERD 流入/流出速率的大小和时间密切相关，对这些应力的幅度和范围的更好理解为水管理人员提供了有用的信息，以更好地了解潜在的水库触发地震来自几种不同的操作和蓄水策略的事件。以及来自整个 GERD 蓄水池的总最大应力的 24%。在模拟 GERD 操作期间，年库仑应力的变化归因于每单位面积的季节性负荷，部分归因于初始季节性水位。这些应力张量的空间模式和幅度与 GERD 流入/流出速率的大小和时间密切相关，对这些应力的幅度和范围的更好理解为水管理人员提供了有用的信息，以更好地了解潜在的水库触发地震来自几种不同的操作和蓄水策略的事件。