Frequent, small wildfires can pose dangers to homes in the wildland–urban interface, but are not often included in wildfire hazard models. We assessed patterns of small wildfire occurrence probability in the Northeast region of the United States, focusing on (1) spatial and seasonal variations; (2) differences between small and large fires (size threshold of 4 ha); and (3) how predicted probabilities are influenced by inconsistent wildfire definitions in urbanised landscapes. We analysed fire incident report data from 2005 to 2017 to parameterise maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models based on land cover, topography, climatic water deficit, soil moisture and road density. Overall, wildfire occurrence was highest in areas with lower agricultural cover and with more low-density urban development (explaining 53.5 and 28.6% of variance, respectively, in our region-wide model), while larger fires were concentrated in areas with intermediate levels of development, higher climatic water deficit and more rugged topography. These patterns were largely consistent when we assessed models for individual states, but differences in wildfire reporting patterns led to differences in the effect of urban development on fire probability. Our results provide novel understanding of small wildfire patterns in the Northeast and demonstrate the need to more reliably quantify these hazards.

通常，小型野火会对野外与城市交界处的房屋构成危险，但通常不包括在野火危害模型中。我们评估了美国东北地区小规模野火发生概率的模式，重点是（1）空间和季节变化；（2）大小火之间的区别（大小阈值为4公顷）；（3）城市化景观中不一致的野火定义如何影响预测的概率。我们分析了2005年至2017年的火灾报告数据，以基于土地覆盖，地形，气候缺水，土壤湿度和道路密度的最大熵（MaxEnt）模型参数化。总体而言，野火发生率最高的地区是农业覆盖率较低且城市发展密度较低的地区（方差分别为53.5和28.6％，在我们整个区域的模型中），而较大的火灾则集中在发展水平中等，气候缺水率更高和地形更崎areas的区域。当我们评估各个州的模型时，这些模式在很大程度上是一致的，但是野火报告模式的差异导致了城市发展对火灾概率的影响的差异。我们的结果提供了对东北小火场模式的新颖理解，并表明需要更可靠地量化这些危害。但是野火报告模式的差异导致城市发展对火灾可能性的影响也有所不同。我们的结果提供了对东北小火场模式的新颖理解，并表明需要更可靠地量化这些危害。但是野火报告模式的差异导致城市发展对火灾可能性的影响也有所不同。我们的结果提供了对东北小火场模式的新颖理解，并表明需要更可靠地量化这些危害。