ABSTRACT

There is renewed interest in housing policy, but the role of local political factors has been understudied. Local elected officials—particularly city council members elected to represent specific geographic areas—are expected to exercise considerable discretion over development in their districts. This paper examines the influence of council district locations, neighborhood characteristics, and zoning in explaining housing growth in Los Angeles. We analyze all new housing and new multifamily housing in Los Angeles’s 15 council districts between 2000 and 2016. We specify negative binomial regression models that estimate the number of new housing units as a function of neighborhood and locational factors. We find limited evidence to define city council districts as consistently “anti-growth” or “pro-growth.” Rather, within-district factors—particularly single-family zoning and vacant land availability—are the most influential factors across our models. These results illustrate the importance of understanding the nuances of local characteristics that affect residential growth.

摘要

人们对住房政策重新产生了兴趣，但当地政治因素的作用一直没有得到充分研究。地方民选官员（尤其是市议会议员选择代表特定地理区域）预计将对其地区的发展行使相当大的酌处权。本文研究了议会区位置、邻里特征和分区在解释洛杉矶住房增长方面的影响。我们分析了 2000 年至 2016 年间洛杉矶 15 个议会区的所有新住房和新多户住宅。我们指定了负二项式回归模型，该模型估计新住房单元的数量是邻里和位置因素的函数。我们发现将市议会选区定义为一贯“反增长”或“促进增长”的证据有限。相当，区内因素——尤其是单户住宅区划和空地可用性——是我们模型中最具影响力的因素。这些结果说明了了解影响住宅增长的地方特征的细微差别的重要性。