ABSTRACT

Tunisia is currently facing political, economic and financial problems which have an impact on the flow of remittances. This study is the first attempt to give a thorough analysis of a two-way relationship between workers’ remittances and ICRG disaggregated country risk ratings (such as economic, financial and political risks) in Tunisia in short and long run, spanning the period 1984–2016. In an attempt to achieve this key objective, an ARDL approach combined with CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, and Wald test are adopted to investigate this linkage. The results show the presence of a long-run relationship. In addition, it could be deduced that in the long-run, economic risks have a negative impact on remittances, whereas in the short-run, they have a positive impact. The financial risk increases remittances because it includes variables related to remittances such as exchange rate stability. A higher level of remittances carries a higher level of financial risk in the short and long-runs. These results engage policy-makers to minimize this negative effect and channel remittances towards investment purposes. Results also indicate that, in response to an increase in remittances, the political risk decreases in the short run but increases in the long run.

摘要

突尼斯目前面临影响汇款流动的政治、经济和金融问题。本研究首次尝试全面分析突尼斯工人汇款与 ICRG 分列的国家风险评级（如经济、金融和政治风险）之间的双向关系，跨越 1984 年至 1984 年2016 年。为了实现这一关键目标，采用ARDL 方法结合CUSUM 和CUSUMSQ 检验以及Wald 检验来研究这种联系。结果表明存在长期关系。此外，可以推断出，从长期来看，经济风险对汇款有负面影响，而从短期来看，则是正面影响。金融风险会增加汇款，因为它包括与汇款相关的变量，例如汇率稳定性。从短期和长期来看，较高的汇款水平会带来较高的财务风险。这些结果促使政策制定者尽量减少这种负面影响，并将汇款用于投资目的。结果还表明，随着汇款的增加，政治风险在短期内会降低，但从长远来看会增加。