Our study plans to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on different critical Turkish health outcomes mainly to chart future developments and to identify locations in Turkey that may be potential vulnerable hotspots. The general structure of the temperature mortality function was estimated with different fixed-level effects, with a specific focus on the mortality effect of maximum apparent temperature. Regional models were fitted to pinpoint the thresholds where the temperature–mortality relation changes, thus investigating whether the thresholds are determined nationally or regionally. The future patterns were estimated by extrapolating from future temperature trends: analyzing possible future mortality trends under the restricting assumption of minimal acclimation. Using the fixed effect regression structure, social and developmental variables acting as heat effect modifiers were also identified. In the largest dataset, the initial fixed effect regression specification supports the hypothesis summarized by the U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. This is a first corroboration for Turkish climate and health research. In addition, intermediation effects were substantiated for the level of urbanization and population density, and the human development and health development within provinces. Regional heterogeneity is substantiated by the mortality–temperature relationship and the significant threshold deviations from the national average.

中文翻译：

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被太阳灼伤：在土耳其背景下分解温度对死亡率的当前和未来影响

我们的研究计划量化高温对土耳其不同关键健康结果的影响，主要是为了绘制未来发展图并确定土耳其可能成为潜在脆弱热点的位置。温度死亡率函数的一般结构是用不同的固定水平效应估计的，特别关注最大表观温度的死亡率效应。区域模型被拟合以查明温度-死亡率关系变化的阈值，从而调查阈值是由国家还是区域确定的。通过从未来温度趋势推断未来模式来估计未来模式：在最小适应的限制性假设下分析可能的未来死亡率趋势。使用固定效应回归结构，还确定了作为热效应调节剂的社会和发展变量。在最大的数据集中，初始固定效应回归规范支持温度和死亡率之间的 U 形关系总结的假设。这是土耳其气候和健康研究的首次证实。此外，城市化水平和人口密度以及省内人类发展和健康发展的中介效应得到证实。死亡率-温度关系和与全国平均水平的显着阈值偏差证实了区域异质性。初始固定效应回归规范支持由温度和死亡率之间的 U 形关系总结的假设。这是土耳其气候和健康研究的首次证实。此外，城市化水平和人口密度以及省内人类发展和健康发展的中介效应得到证实。死亡率-温度关系和与全国平均水平的显着阈值偏差证实了区域异质性。初始固定效应回归规范支持由温度和死亡率之间的 U 形关系总结的假设。这是土耳其气候和健康研究的首次证实。此外，城市化水平和人口密度以及省内人类发展和健康发展的中介效应得到证实。死亡率-温度关系和与全国平均水平的显着阈值偏差证实了区域异质性。