We develop a theory for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks that incorporate both network structure and dynamic correlations. This theory can account for the multistage onset of the epidemic phase in scale-free networks. This phenomenon is characterized by multiple peaks in the susceptibility as a function of the infection rate. It can be explained by that, even under the global epidemic threshold, a hub can sustain the epidemics for an extended period. Moreover, our approach improves theoretical calculations of prevalence close to the threshold in heterogeneous networks and also can predict the average risk of infection for neighbors of nodes with different degree and state on uncorrelated static networks.

中文翻译：

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异构网络中流行病的多阶段发作

我们为网络上的易感性感染易感性（SIS）流行病模型开发了一种理论，该理论融合了网络结构和动态相关性。该理论可以解释无标度网络中流行阶段的多阶段发作。这种现象的特征在于，易感性的多个峰值是感染率的函数。可以解释为，即使在全球流行阈值以下，枢纽也可以在较长时期内维持流行。此外，我们的方法改进了异构网络中接近阈值的患病率的理论计算，还可以预测不相关静态网络上具有不同程度和状态的节点的邻居的平均感染风险。