Abstract

We estimate the change in the reported number of voter fraud cases when states switch to conducting elections by mail. We consider two types of states in which voting is facilitated by mail: states where a large number of voters receive ballots by mail (receive-by-mail states, RBM) and a subset of these states where registered voters are automatically sent ballots by mail (vote-by-mail states, VBM). We then compare the number of voter fraud cases in RBM (VBM) states to the number of cases in non-RBM (non-VBM) states, using two approaches standard in the social sciences. We find no evidence that voting by mail increases the risk of voter fraud overall. Between 2016 and 2019, RBM (VBM) states reported similar fraud rates to non-RBM (non-VBM) states. Moreover, we estimate Washington would have reported 73 more cases of fraud between 2011 and 2019 had it not introduced its VBM law. While our analysis of the data considers only two of many possible approaches, we argue our findings are unlikely were fraud more common when elections are held by mail.

摘要

当各州改用邮寄选举时，我们估计了报告的选民欺诈案件数量的变化。我们考虑通过邮寄方式促进投票的两种类型的州：大量选民通过邮件接收选票的州（接收邮件的州，RBM）和已注册选民通过邮件自动发送选票的这些州的子集（通过邮件投票的状态，VBM）。然后，我们使用社会科学中的两种方法，将RBM（VBM）州的选民欺诈案件数与非RBM（non-VBM）州的案件数进行比较。我们发现没有证据表明邮寄投票会增加选民欺诈的整体风险。在2016年至2019年之间，RBM（VBM）州报告的欺诈率与非RBM（non-VBM）州相似。此外，我们估计华盛顿将再报告73次如果2011年至2019年之间的欺诈案件没有引入VBM法。尽管我们对数据的分析仅考虑了许多可能的方法中的两种，但我们认为，如果通过邮寄进行选举，欺诈是不是更普遍，我们的发现就不太可能。