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Does the Association Between Flows of People and Crime Differ Across Crime Types in Sweden?
European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research ( IF 2.227 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 , DOI: 10.1007/s10610-021-09478-3
Manne Gerell

Places with persistently high levels of crime, hot spots, are an important object of study. To some extent, the high levels of crime at such hot spots are likely to be related to flows of people. City center locations with large flows of people are quite often also hot spots, e.g., hot spots for pick pocketing at a central train station, or hot spots for assault in the nightlife district. This can be related to crime pattern theory, or to the routine activity perspective, which both suggest that flows of people can affect crime. The present study attempts to explore and quantify whether there are differences in the association between flows of people and crime for different crime types. The analysis considers locations with high crime counts for six crime types in the city of Malmö, Sweden. For each crime type, hot spots are identified and mapped, and in order to explore whether, or how, these are related to flows of people, the crime levels are then analyzed in relation to the number of people who boarded a local bus (N = 33,134,198) nearby. The paper shows that all six crime types are associated with flows of people, although less so for arson and vandalism. This is hypothesized to be due to the relatively constant target availability for these crimes as opposed to the other crime types studied.



中文翻译:

在瑞典,人流与犯罪之间的关联是否因犯罪类型不同而不同?

犯罪率持续居高不下的地区,热点地区是研究的重要对象。在某种程度上,此类热点地区的高犯罪率很可能与人员流动有关。人口稠密的市中心通常也是热点,例如,在中央火车站扒窃的热点或在夜生活区进行袭击的热点。这可能与犯罪模式理论或例行活动的观点有关,两者都表明人流可以影响犯罪。本研究试图探索和量化在不同犯罪类型下人流与犯罪之间的联系是否存在差异。该分析考虑了瑞典马尔默市六种犯罪类型的犯罪高发地点。对于每种犯罪类型,热点都会被识别和映射,N  = 33,134,198)。该文件表明,所有六种犯罪类型都与人流有关,尽管纵火和故意破坏的情况较少。据推测,这是由于与其他犯罪类型相比,这些犯罪的目标可得性相对稳定。

更新日期:2021-03-23
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