Monitoring population trends for bird species in the Arctic and sub-Arctic can be difficult and cost prohibitive. Breeding populations of birds in these remote locations may be changing and have garnered much attention regarding their conservation. We analyzed data from bird lists (daily species observations) collected while conducting other targeted research to estimate trends in the probability of observing species at two sub-Arctic study sites. For Akimiski Island, Nunavut (52 species) we estimated positive trends with high confidence (95% credible limits do not include 0) for 14 species and negative trends with high confidence for 18. For Burntpoint Creek, Ontario (46 species) we estimated that 12 species had positive trends with high confidence and 12 had negative trends with high confidence. More than 60% of species at each site matched population trends for at least one of three larger geographic scales that we compared estimates with; regional, provincial and national. We hypothesized that trends may be due to climate change effects or because of effects related to intensive herbivory from nesting geese. Trends for most of the species where we made specific predictions from these hypotheses agreed with those predicted; however, well-designed experiments are needed to conclusively determine the driving mechanisms of these trends. Collecting bird list data while simultaneously conducting other research is not nearly as time consuming or expensive as targeted breeding bird surveys (e.g., point counts, call counts, nest searching, etc.). This analysis method may be of utility for other remote field study sites where gaps in trend data exist.

中文翻译：

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来自哈德逊湾低地遗址长期观测数据的鸟类趋势

监测北极和次北极鸟类的种群趋势可能很困难，而且成本高昂。这些偏远地区的鸟类繁殖种群可能正在发生变化，并且在鸟类保护方面也引起了广泛关注。我们分析了收集的鸟类名单（日常物种观察）中的数据，同时进行了其他有针对性的研究，以估计在两个亚北极研究地点观察物种的可能性趋势。对于努纳武特（Nunavut）的阿基米斯基岛（Akinimiski Island）（52种），我们估计了14种物种具有高可信度的积极趋势（95％可信范围内不包括0），对于18种物种则具有高可信度的负趋势（对于安大略省的伯恩特波特克里克（46种）我们估计12个物种具有高可信度的正趋势，而12个物种具有高可信度的负趋势。在每个地点，超过60％的物种与人口趋势相匹配，这是我们与估计值进行比较的三个较大地理尺度中的至少一个；地区，省级和国家级。我们假设趋势可能是由于气候变化的影响，或者是由于与筑巢鹅密集的食草有关的影响。我们根据这些假设做出具体预测的大多数物种的趋势与所预测的一致。但是，需要精心设计的实验来最终确定这些趋势的驱动机制。在同时进行其他研究的同时收集鸟类名单数据，并不像目标繁殖鸟类调查（例如，点数，呼叫数，巢搜索等）那样耗时或昂贵。