Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC) are recognized among the main drivers affecting biodiversity and ecosystem services. Especially in areas with high biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity, the need to find optimal planning solutions to combine human and natural systems still remains an open issue. This study aims to investigate how different planning strategies affecting the spatial arrangement of LULCC can produce different impacts in terms of ecosystem conditions in the Lazio region, Central Italy. Starting from the same LULCC magnitude observed in the past through an inventory approach, three different future scenarios to 2030 were depicted by means of the InVEST tool Scenario Generator: the “Business as Usual” (BaU) and, alternatively, one avoiding changes within the “Natura 2000″ sites (N2K) and another within the regional most “Degraded Municipalities” (DM). The ecological impacts of these scenarios were then assessed using the InVEST Habitat Quality model, adopting Habitat Quality (HQ) as a proxy for biodiversity. In order to characterize LULCC impacts at multiple scales, the assessment was carried out both at the regional level and within distinct ecological units. Independently from the spatial arrangement of projected LULCC, HQ decreased under all three scenarios. Nonetheless, HQ values varied among scenarios, highlighting a strict relationship between the spatial arrangement and the ecological impact of LULCC. Compared to BaU, alternative scenarios, as well as their combination into a “Best Scenario”, reduced negative impacts on HQ. These results highlighted the weak sustainability of pursuing with past urban planning strategies, while allowed to foster innovative planning approaches to mitigate habitats loss and degradation. The proposed methodology was effective to localize the conservation priorities as well as ameliorating the reliability of planning strategies based on their ecological performance. Furthermore, it supports the resolution of planning conflicts between contrasting demands (e.g., urban expansion vs biodiversity conservation), thus enhancing simultaneous benefits for both nature and people.

土地使用和土地覆被变化（LULCC）被认为是影响生物多样性和生态系统服务的主要驱动力。特别是在生物物理和社会经济异质性很高的地区，寻找结合人类和自然系统的最佳规划解决方案的需求仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。这项研究旨在调查影响LULCC空间布局的不同规划策略如何对意大利中部拉齐奥地区的生态系统状况产生不同的影响。通过清单方法从过去观察到的LULCC量值开始，通过InVEST工具场景生成器描述了到2030年的三个不同的未来场景：“照常营业”（BaU），或者，一个避免在“ Natura 2000”站点（N2K）内进行更改，另一个避免在该地区最“退化的城市”（DM）中进行更改。然后使用人居质量（HQ）作为生物多样性的替代指标，使用InVEST生境质量模型评估了这些情景的生态影响。为了表征LULCC的多尺度影响，评估是在区域级别和不同生态单元内进行的。在所有三种情况下，HQ均与预计的LULCC的空间布置无关，其总部有所下降。但是，HQ值在不同情况下有所不同，突显了LULCC的空间布局与生态影响之间的严格关系。与BaU相比，替代方案及其组合为“最佳方案”，减少了对总部的负面影响。这些结果突显了追求过去的城市规划策略的可持续性较弱，同时允许采用创新的规划方法来减轻生境的丧失和退化。所提出的方法可有效地确定保护重点，并改善基于生态绩效的规划策略的可靠性。此外，它支持解决不同需求之间的计划冲突（例如，城市扩张与生物多样性保护），从而增强了自然和人的同时利益。所提出的方法可有效地确定保护重点，并改善基于生态绩效的规划策略的可靠性。此外，它支持解决不同需求之间的计划冲突（例如，城市扩张与生物多样性保护），从而增强了自然和人的同时利益。所提出的方法可有效地确定保护重点，并改善基于生态绩效的规划策略的可靠性。此外，它支持解决不同需求之间的计划冲突（例如，城市扩张与生物多样性保护），从而增强了自然和人的同时利益。