The positive direct and indirect spillover effects of foreign direct investment on growth are often case specific and not necessarily uniform nor easily predicted. Effects of FDI due to international investment policy changes are often confounded by free trade and customs union agreements that occur simultaneously because trade may be a complement to or substitute for FDI. We review the effects of regional trade agreements on FDI and focus on the new Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). With annual data from 1995 to 2019 for post-Soviet countries, three members, the Russian Federation, Belarus, and Kazakhstan and nine non-members, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan, we estimate the EAEU integration effect on country FDI flows, post-2010. We control for other determinants, including infrastructure development, natural resource rents, potentially confounding trade flows, the financial crisis, sanctions against Russia and country fixed effects. The formation of the EAEU did not stimulate FDI and while GDP grew it was not associated with higher FDI. Further growth opportunities via FDI lie with relationships with countries outside the EAEU.

外国直接投资对增长的积极直接和间接溢出效应往往因具体情况而异，不一定统一，也不容易预测。由于贸易可能是 FDI 的补充或替代，因此国际投资政策变化引起的 FDI 影响常常被同时发生的自由贸易和关税同盟协定混淆。我们回顾了区域贸易协定对 FDI 的影响，并重点关注新的欧亚经济联盟 (EAEU)。后苏联国家 1995 年至 2019 年的年度数据包括三个成员国（俄罗斯联邦、白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦）和九个非成员国（亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、格鲁吉亚、吉尔吉斯共和国、摩尔多瓦、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、乌克兰和乌兹别克斯坦），我们估计了 2010 年后 EAEU 一体化对国家 FDI 流量的影响。我们控制其他决定因素，包括基础设施发展、自然资源租金、潜在的混杂贸易流动、金融危机、对俄罗斯的制裁和国家固定效应。EAEU 的形成并没有刺激 FDI，虽然 GDP 增长，但与 FDI 增加无关。通过 FDI 获得的进一步增长机会在于与 EAEU 以外国家的关系。