A fully probabilistic formulation is proposed to quantify seismic hazard rates in regions where seismic monitoring has been defective, and as a consequence the catalogue is incomplete in a wide range of magnitudes. Catalogue incompleteness is always accompanied by an imperfect seismic source characterization, the wider the region the more defective its description. To overcome these issues, the approach presented herein is associated with three probabilistic assumptions: (1) the total seismicity of the region is figured out from the incomplete seismic catalogue; (2) the probability that the next seismic event might occur in a specific part of the region is quantified from the spatial distribution of recorded earthquakes; (3) schemes 2 and 3 are naturally incorporated in the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the seismic hazard curve is computed. The approach is applied to the Gulf of Mexico. It is shown that the Gulf of Mexico should not be considered as a homogeneous seismic source, since non uniform spatial distribution of recorded earthquakes significantly impacts on seismic hazard estimates.

提出了一种完全概率的公式来量化地震监测存在缺陷的区域的地震危险率，结果，该目录在很大范围内都是不完整的。目录不完整总是伴随着不完善的地震震源特征描述，区域越宽，描述就越有缺陷。为了克服这些问题，本文提出的方法与三个概率假设相关：（1）从不完整的地震目录中得出该地区的总地震活动性；（2）从记录的地震的空间分布中量化下一次地震事件可能在该区域的特定部分发生的概率；（3）将方案2和方案3自然地纳入经典概率地震危险性分析中，并计算出地震危险性曲线。该方法适用于墨西哥湾。结果表明，不应将墨西哥湾视为同质地震源，因为记录的地震的空间分布不均匀会严重影响地震危险性估计。