Purpose

This study aims to investigate the probable future scenarios of nanotechnology development and their implications in Iran considering anticipatory knowledge, suitable methodology and integral perspective.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used framework morphology, a method for creating scenarios and their implications developed by the Delphi method that covers the consistent morphological space and make contact with previous scenario work, as well as the current and projected research and policy situation in Iran.

Findings

The study identified five scenarios, namely, “no nano” scenario headlines picturing a future society that there is no impact of nanotechnology in it. The “nano flow” scenario and indicates prospering nanotechnology in the full sides of the market. The “no nano contact” scenario suspecting that apart from the already banned nanotechnological applications in food, cosmetics, clothes and agricultural applications might bear equally unacceptable risks. The “hidden nano” scenario by pointing out the effects of accidents and crimes traced back to intended or unintended misuse of nanotechnological applications. Then finally, the “red nano” scenario illustration headlines the prospects of medical, energy system efficiency and nanotechnological applications in information and communication technologies.

Practical implications

The policymakers could use the scenarios and their implications as part of its considerations in strategic planning.

Originality/value

This paper represents the first time that a framework for societal implications has been applied to nanotechnology development topic in Iran.

中文翻译：

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影响纳米技术创新可持续发展的社会因素：一种形态学方法

目的

本研究旨在考虑预期知识、合适的方法和整体观点，调查纳米技术发展的可能未来情景及其在伊朗的影响。

设计/方法/方法

该研究使用了框架形态学，这是一种由 Delphi 方法开发的创建情景及其影响的方法，该方法涵盖了一致的形态学空间并与以前的情景工作以及伊朗当前和预计的研究和政策形势相联系。

发现

该研究确定了五种情景，即“无纳米”情景头条新闻，描绘了一个没有纳米技术影响的未来社会。“纳米流动”情景，表明纳米技术在市场的各个方面都在蓬勃发展。“无纳米接触”情景怀疑除了已经被禁止的纳米技术在食品、化妆品、服装和农业应用中的应用外，还可能承担同样不可接受的风险。“隐藏的纳米”情景通过指出事故和犯罪的影响可以追溯到有意或无意地滥用纳米技术应用。最后，“红色纳米”情景插图突出了医疗、能源系统效率和纳米技术在信息和通信技术中的应用前景。

实际影响

决策者可以使用这些情景及其影响作为其战略规划考虑的一部分。

原创性/价值

本文首次将社会影响框架应用于伊朗的纳米技术发展主题。