Although societally important, extreme precipitation is difficult to represent in climate models. This study shows one robust aspect of extreme precipitation across models: extreme precipitation over tropical oceans is strengthened through a positive feedback with cloud-radiative effects. This connection is shown for a multi-model ensemble with experiments that make clouds transparent to longwave radiation. In all cases, tropical extreme precipitation reduces without cloud-radiative effects. Qualitatively similar results are presented for one model using the cloud-locking method to remove cloud feedbacks. The reduced extreme precipitation without cloud-radiative feedbacks does not arise from changes in the mean climate. Rather, evidence is presented that cloud-radiative feedbacks enhance organization of convection and most extreme precipitation over tropical oceans occurs within organized systems. This result suggests that climate models must correctly predict cloud structure and properties, as well as capture the essence of organized convection in order to accurately represent extreme rainfall.

尽管在社会上很重要，但在气候模型中很难表示极端降水。这项研究显示了各个模型中极端降水的一个强大方面：通过云辐射效应的正反馈加强了热带海洋上的极端降水。这种连接在多模型合集中进行了展示，并进行了实验，使云层对长波辐射透明。在所有情况下，热带极端降水都会减少，而不会产生云辐射。使用云锁定方法去除云反馈的一种模型在质量上给出了相似的结果。没有云辐射反馈的极端降水减少并非源于平均气候的变化。相当，有证据表明，云辐射反馈增强了对流的组织，热带海洋上最极端的降水发生在有组织的系统内。该结果表明，气候模型必须正确预测云的结构和性质，并捕捉有组织对流的本质，以便准确表示极端降雨。