Gender pay gaps persist worldwide despite political emphasis to close them. The literature found various drivers of the gaps but remained vastly silent about the role of cyclical dynamics. Using quarterly US data over the period 1979-2019, we study the effects of cyclical dynamics on the gender pay gap based on a structural vector auto-regression model with zero and sign restrictions. The results suggest that technology shocks lead to lower levels of the gender pay gap in the medium run, while higher wage bargaining power reduces the gap in the short run. However, these reductions of the gap come at the cost of increased unemployment. As a policy implication, these results imply a trade-off between lower gender pay gaps and higher unemployment.

尽管在政治上强调要缩小差距，但世界范围内的性别工资差距仍然存在。文献中发现了造成这种差距的各种因素，但对循环动力学的作用却保持沉默。我们使用美国1979-2019年的季度数据，基于具有零和符号限制的结构矢量自回归模型，研究了周期性动态对性别薪酬差距的影响。结果表明，技术冲击会在中期内降低性别工资差距的水平，而更高的工资讨价还价能力则会在短期内缩小差距。但是，这些差距的减少是以增加失业为代价的。从政策上讲，这些结果意味着在较低的性别工资差距和较高的失业率之间进行权衡。