This paper studies the causal effect of local exposure to COVID-19 on voting behaviour and electoral outcomes using evidence from the regional elections held in Spain on 12 July 2020. Exploiting the variation in exposure to COVID-19 and using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we show that turnout was between 2.6 and 5.1 percentage points lower in municipalities that experienced positive cases of COVID-19. In addition, the results show a substantial increase in the probability of voting for nationalist parties. We discuss the idea of perceived fear being the potential mechanism driving our results.

中文翻译：

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太害怕投票？COVID-19 对投票行为的影响

本文使用 2020 年 7 月 12 日在西班牙举行的地区选举中的证据，研究了当地暴露于 COVID-19 对投票行为和选举结果的因果影响。利用 COVID-19 暴露的差异并使用差异中的差异识别策略，我们表明，在经历过 COVID-19 阳性病例的城市中，投票率降低了 2.6 到 5.1 个百分点。此外，结果显示投票给民族主义政党的可能性大幅增加。我们讨论了感知恐惧是推动我们结果的潜在机制的想法。