The match-mismatch hypothesis predicts that variability in spring primary production will increase starvation risk for marine fish populations. However, it is often unclear whether the synergic effects of temperature, phytoplankton phenology and metabolic demands of fish support these prediction within and across regions. In this study, we combine experimentally-derived rates of larval survival in relation to water temperature with satellite remote-sensing estimates of chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature to predict habitat quality of first feeding Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) larvae in two adjacent large marine ecosystems; southeast Bering Sea (BS) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Predictions are made from 1998 to 2019, a period comprised of both warm and cool springs, followed by a series of extreme warming events (heatwaves) beginning in 2014. Model results indicate that the drivers of a mismatch between cod larvae and their food is fundamentally different between the two systems. In the GOA, larval habitat suitability is highly dependent on interannual fluctuations in sea surface temperature that regulate yolk reserves in embryos. In contrast, larval habitat suitability in the BS was more sensitive to the onset of the surface expression of Chl a production. The combined effects of changes in timing of Chl a and increased metabolic demands of larvae were captured by the model during the GOA marine heatwave (2014–16, 2019), which predicted significant loss of larval habitat across the entire region. These habitat models integrate important spatial, temporal and physiological components of match-mismatch theory that can be used to examine marine fish populations experiencing different rates of climate stress across regions.

匹配不匹配假说预测，春季初级生产的可变性将增加海水鱼类种群的饥饿风险。但是，通常不清楚温度，浮游植物物候和鱼类代谢需求的协同作用是否支持区域内和区域间的这些预测。在这项研究中，我们结合实验得出的与水温有关的幼虫存活率与卫星遥感的叶绿素a和海面温度估算值，以预测首次摄食的太平洋鳕鱼（Gadus macrocephalus）的栖息地质量。）两个相邻的大型海洋生态系统中的幼虫；东南白令海（BS）和阿拉斯加湾（GOA）。预测从1998年到2019年进行，这段时期包括温暖的春天和凉爽的春天，然后是2014年开始的一系列极端变暖事件（热浪）。模型结果表明，鳕鱼幼虫与其食物不匹配的驱动因素从根本上讲两种系统之间的差异。在GOA中，幼虫栖息地的适应性高度依赖于调节胚胎卵黄储量的海面温度的年际波动。与此相反，在BS幼虫栖息地是叶绿素的表面表达的发作更敏感一个生产。变化在叶绿素的定时的组合效应一该模型在GOA海洋热浪（2014-16年，2019年）期间捕获了幼虫的代谢需求，并增加了其代谢需求，这预示了整个区域的幼虫栖息地将大量减少。这些栖息地模型整合了不匹配理论的重要空间，时间和生理成分，可用于检验跨区域气候压力变化速率不同的海水鱼类种群。