Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-26 , DOI: 10.1177/1748006x20978127 Guang Zou 1 , Kian Banisoleiman 1 , Arturo González 2
A challenge in marine and offshore engineering is structural integrity management (SIM) of assets such as ships, offshore structures, mooring systems, etc. Due to harsh marine environments, fatigue cracking and corrosion present persistent threats to structural integrity. SIM for such assets is complicated because of a very large number of rewelded plates and joints, for which condition inspections and maintenance are difficult and expensive tasks. Marine SIM needs to take into account uncertainty in material properties, loading characteristics, fatigue models, detection capacities of inspection methods, etc. Optimising inspection and maintenance strategies under uncertainty is therefore vital for effective SIM and cost reductions. This paper proposes a value of information (VoI) computation and Bayesian decision optimisation (BDO) approach to optimal maintenance planning of typical fatigue-prone structural systems under uncertainty. It is shown that the approach can yield optimal maintenance strategies reliably in various maintenance decision making problems or contexts, which are characterized by different cost ratios. It is also shown that there are decision making contexts where inspection information doesn’t add value, and condition based maintenance (CBM) is not cost-effective. The CBM strategy is optimal only in the decision making contexts where VoI > 0. The proposed approach overcomes the limitation of CBM strategy and highlights the importance of VoI computation (to confirm VoI > 0) before adopting inspections and CBM.
中文翻译:
基于状态检查计算信息值的贝叶斯维护决策优化
船舶和近海工程中的一个挑战是资产的结构完整性管理(SIM),例如船舶,近海结构,系泊系统等。由于恶劣的海洋环境,疲劳裂纹和腐蚀对结构完整性构成持续威胁。由于大量重新焊接的板和接头,用于此类资产的SIM十分复杂,因此状态检查和维护是困难且昂贵的任务。船用SIM需要考虑材料特性,载荷特性,疲劳模型,检查方法的检测能力等方面的不确定性。因此,在不确定性下优化检查和维护策略对于有效SIM和降低成本至关重要。本文提出了一种信息量(VoI)计算和贝叶斯决策优化(BDO)方法,用于不确定条件下典型易疲劳结构系统的最佳维护计划。结果表明,该方法可以在各种维护决策问题或环境中可靠地得出最优的维护策略,这些问题或情况具有不同的成本比率。还表明,在决策环境中,检查信息无法增加价值,并且基于条件的维护(CBM)成本效益不高。只有在VoI> 0的决策环境中,CBM策略才是最佳的。所提出的方法克服了CBM策略的局限性,并强调了在采用检查和CBM之前计算VoI(确认VoI> 0)的重要性。