The hydrologic behaviour of the Brahmani River basin (BRB) (39,633.90 km²), India was assessed for the base period (1970–1999) and future climate scenarios (2050) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Monthly streamflow data of 2000–2009 and 2010–2012 was used for calibration and validation, respectively, and performed satisfactorily with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (E_NS) of 0.52–0.55. The projected future climatic outcomes of the HadGEM2-ES model indicated that minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation may increase by 1.11–3.72 °C, 0.27–2.89 °C, and 16–263 mm, respectively, by 2050. The mean annual streamflow over the basin may increase by 20.86, 11.29, 4.45, and 37.94% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the sediment yield is likely to increase by 23.34, 10.53, 2.45, and 27.62% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, signifying RCP 8.5 to be the most adverse scenario for the BRB. Moreover, a ten-fold increase in environmental flow (defined as Q₉₀) by the mid-century period is expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The vulnerable area assessment revealed that the increase in moderate and high erosion-prone regions will be more prevalent in the mid-century. The methodology developed herein could be successfully implemented for identification and prioritization of critical zones in worldwide river basins.

使用土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）对印度的布拉马尼河流域（BRB）（39,633.90 km ²）的水文行为进行了基准期（1970-1999）和未来气候情景（2050）的评估。2000–2009年和2010–2012年的月流量数据分别用于校准和验证，并且在纳什-苏特克利夫效率（E _NS）的0.52-0.55。HadGEM2-ES模型的未来气候预测结果表明，到2050年，最低温度，最高温度和降水量可能分别增加1.11–3.72°C，0.27–2.89°C和16–263 mm。在代表浓度路径（RCP）分别为2.6、4.5、6.0和8.5的情况下，流域上的径流可能分别增加20.86％，11.29％，4.45％和37.94％，而底泥产量可能增加23.34％，10.53％，2.45％和在RCP 2.6、4.5、6.0和8.5下分别达到27.62％，这表明RCP 8.5对BRB而言是最不利的情况。此外，环境流量增加了十倍（定义为Q ₉₀）预计会在RCP 8.5情景下进入本世纪中期。脆弱地区评估显示，在本世纪中叶，中度和高度侵蚀频发地区的增加将更为普遍。本文开发的方法可以成功地用于识别和确定世界范围内流域关键区域的优先级。