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Modeling hydro-climatic changes of evapotranspiration over a semi-arid river basin of India
Journal of Water & Climate Change ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 , DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2020.173
S. Rehana 1 , G. Sireesha Naidu 1 , N. T. Monish 1 , U. Sowjanya 1
Affiliation  

Parametric models of actual evapotranspiration (AET) based on precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are region-specific and purely climate-induced and limited to represent the hydrological water balances. Basin-averaged model parameters considering P, AET, and runoff (R) using a machine learning algorithm, ensemble regression model, is proposed. Hydrologically calibrated model parameters allowed the study of AET under alterations of water use for current and for future scenarios under climate change. The effect of climate, water, and land use changes on AET was studied for the post-change period of 2004–2014 compared to pre-change period of 1965–2003 over Krishna river basin (KRB), India. The AET has increased under climate and water use changes while there is both increase and decreases of AET under land use changes for post-change period compared to pre-change period over the basin. Severe water shortages were estimated under pronounced increase of temperature (1.29 °C) compared to precipitation increase (2.19%) based on Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) projections for the period 2021–2060. Hydrologically induced AET changes were more pronounced than climate for current climate; whereas climate-induced AET changes were found to be more prominent for projected climate signals over the basin.



中文翻译:

模拟印度半干旱河流域的蒸散量的水文气候变化

基于降水量(P)和潜在蒸散量(PET)的实际蒸散量(AET)的参数模型是特定于区域的,并且是纯粹由气候引起的,并且仅代表水文水平衡。提出了使用P,AET和径流(R)的流域平均模型参数,该算法使用机器学习算法集成回归模型。通过水文校准的模型参数,可以研究当前和未来气候变化下用水变化下的AET。研究了印度克里希纳河流域(KRB)2004-2014年变化后时期与1965-2003年变化前时期相比,气候,水和土地利用变化对AET的影响。与流域变化前相比,变化后的土地利用变化下的AET有所增加,而土地使用变化下的AET则有所变化。根据2021年至2060年间协调的区域缩小规模试验(CORDEX)预测,在气温显着上升(1.29°C)与降水增加(2.19%)相比的情况下,估计严重缺水。在当前气候条件下,水文诱发的AET变化比气候更为明显。而对于盆地上的预计气候信号,发现气候引起的AET变化更为突出。19%)基于2021-2060年间的区域协调降尺度实验(CORDEX)预测。在当前气候条件下,水文诱发的AET变化比气候更为明显。而对于盆地上的预计气候信号,发现气候引起的AET变化更为突出。19%)基于2021-2060年间的区域协调降尺度实验(CORDEX)预测。在当前气候条件下,水文诱发的AET变化比气候更为明显。而对于盆地上的预计气候信号,发现气候引起的AET变化更为突出。

更新日期:2021-03-27
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