The hydrologic cycle in the river basins of semi-arid regions is severely influenced by climate change. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydro-climatic condition in Zoshk-Abardeh watershed in eastern Iran. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting – Version 2 (SUFI-2) algorithm to improve the simulation results of the runoff. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth System Models (MIROC-ESM) was used to investigate the effects of climate change on hydro-climatic components under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and in near- (2014–2042), mid- (2042–2071), and far- (2072–2100) futures. The temperature component under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 during the near- and mid-future intervals and the far-future period (for RCP6.0) indicated a significant rising trend. The rainfall parameter in all RCPs and future intervals showed an insignificant descending trend. Runoff alterations under the RCP4.5 amid the mid- to far-future intervals and under the RCP8.5 throughout the far-future period trailed a significant descending trend. The results determined that the temperature will track an upward tendency, while precipitation and runoff will follow a descending trend in this watershed by the end of the 21st century.

半干旱地区流域的水文循环受到气候变化的严重影响。这项研究的目的是评估气候变化对伊朗东部Zoshk-Abardeh流域水文气候条件的影响。土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）已使用顺序不确定度拟合-版本2（SUFI-2）算法进行了校准，以改善径流的模拟结果。《气候-地球系统模型跨学科研究模型》（MIROC-ESM）用于研究在代表性浓度路径情景下（RCP：2.6、4.5、6.0和8.5）以及在气候变化下气候变化对水气候要素的影响。近（2014–2042），中（2042–2071）和远（2072-2100）期货。RCP4.5和RCP6下的温度分量。在不久的将来和中期的间隔以及将来的周期（对于RCP6.0）中，0表示明显的上升趋势。在所有RCP和未来间隔中的降雨参数均显示出微不足道的下降趋势。在未来中期到远期之间，RCP4.5下的径流变化和在整个未来期内，RCP8.5下的径流变化都呈现出明显的下降趋势。结果表明，到21世纪末，该流域的温度将跟踪上升趋势，而降水和径流将遵循下降趋势。在整个未来期间，有5个下降趋势显着。结果表明，到21世纪末，该流域的温度将跟踪上升趋势，而降水和径流将遵循下降趋势。在整个未来期间，有5个下降趋势显着。结果表明，到21世纪末，该流域的温度将跟踪上升趋势，而降水和径流将遵循下降趋势。