ABSTRACT

Using a sample composed of the 298 Honduran municipalities for the period 2006–2014, we evaluate the impact of budgetary, political and socioeconomic factors on the probability of mayors’ re-election. The findings show that mayors who have initiated greater municipal spending are more likely to be re-elected (a $100 increase in real per capita expenditure increases re-election chances by 19.01%). This finding partially supports both public choice theory and the theory of political budget cycles: voters prefer increased spending. Furthermore, mayors with greater transfers from higher levels of government have more chance of being re-elected. When it comes to political factors, progressive parties and mayors with a majority have more chance of being re-elected.

摘要

我们使用 2006 年至 2014 年期间由 298 个洪都拉斯市组成的样本，评估预算、政治和社会经济因素对市长连任概率的影响。调查结果表明，发起更多市政支出的市长更有可能连任（实际人均支出增加 100 美元会使连任机会增加 19.01%）。这一发现部分支持公共选择理论和政治预算周期理论：选民更喜欢增加支出。此外，从上级政府转移资金越多的市长连任的机会就越大。在政治因素方面，进步党和占多数的市长更有可能连任。